Johanna Myrseth Aarflot

Currently, I am the principal investigator for the PELAGIC project (Plankton size and planktivore competition along the Norwegian coast and fjords: ecological implications of warmer and darker waters), a young researchers project funded by the Norwegian Research Council  (2023-2027). The aim of this project is to understand how foraging opportunities for pelagic fish (herring, sprat, mackerel etc.) may change as a result of two climate change assoicated stressors: warming and coastal water darkening. Both warming and coastal water darkening are expected to alter the size structure within plankton communities that have rapid life cycles and respond fast to changes in the environment. In this project we expose historical zooplankton samples to new technology for revealing community size structures, and incorporate plankton size in an existing ecosystem model for Norwegian coastal waters. With this we aim to enhance our understanding of how temperature and light affects the size structure within planktonic communities along the Norwegian coast, both historically and in the future, which ultimately affects the feeding opportunities for fish.

I am also involved in several projects (CoastRisk, CoastShift, ++) focusing on integrated ecosystem assessment, and cumulative impact assessments in particular. Coastal nations like Norway are becoming increasingly dependend on marine resources and maritime activities, a trend often referred to as the "Blue Economy" or "Blue Acceleration". This means that over the next decades, the intensity and diversity of cumulative anthropogenic pressures to the ocean will increase. In cumulative impacts assessments, we systematically evaluate how sectors through their activities are drivers for pressures on the marine environment, and thus contributing to risk of negative impacts on different components of the ecosystem. Cross-sectoral assessments like these are a key step in ecosystem-based management, and we use our results both to inform managers and stakeholders, and also for method development to improve and make these assessments even more relevant for marine management.