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Advice on fishing opportunities for Northeast Arctic haddock in 2023 in ICES subareas 1 and 2

Author(s): Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG)

Report series: IMR-PINRO 2022-4 Published: 06.09.2022
Approved by: Research Director(s): Geir Huse Program leader(s): Maria Fossheim External: Oleg Bulatov (VNIRO)

Stock Name: Northeast Arctic haddock (ICES areas 1 and 2)

 

Advice on fishing opportunities

The Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) advises that when the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission management plan is applied, catches in 2023 should be no more than 170 067 tonnes.

Stock development over time

Fishing pressure on the stock is between Fpa and Flim and above F msy , and the spawning stock biomass is above Bpa and Blim.

graphs, stock development
Figure 1 Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Catch, recruitment, F, SSB and TSB (total stock biomass, age 3+) with 95 % confidence levels. The biomass reference points relate to SSB.

The stock is declining and is expected to continue to decline. This decline is expected to continue at least until the 2021 year-class enters the fishery.

Catch scenarios

Variable Value Notes
F ages 4–7 (2022) 0.303 TAC constraint
SSB (2023) 231 868  
Rage 3 (2022) 38 431 SAM estimates
Rage 3 (2023) 89 327 RCT3 estimates
Rage 3 (2024) 303 267 RCT3 estimates
Total catch (2022) 178 532 TAC set by 51 st JRNFC
Table 1 Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). SSB, catch in tonnes and recruitment in thousands.
Basis Total catch (2023) F ages 4-7 (2023) SSB (2024) % SSB change* % TAC change** % Advice change***
Advice basis            
Management plan 170 067 0.35 205 549 -11 -5 -5
Other scenarios            
MSY approach: FMSY 170 067 0.35 205 549 -11 -5 -5
F = 0 0 0.00 321 974 39 -100 -100
F 2023 = F2022 151 269 0.30 218 188 -6 -15 -15
F = Fpa 213 495 0.47 176 638 -24 20 20
F = Flim 298 284 0.77 121 687 -48 67 67
Table 2 Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Annual catch options. All weights are in tonnes.

* SSB 2024 relative to SSB 2023

** Catch in 2023 relative to TAC in 2022 (178 532 t).

*** Advice value for 2023 relative to advice value for 2022

The advice for 2023 is 5 % lower than the advice and TAC for 2022 due to a declining stock trend.

Basis of the advice

Advice basis Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission management plan
Management plan The current harvest control rule (HCR) for haddock is as follows (see details in Protocol of the 46th Session of the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission [JNRFC, 2016]):
  • TAC for the next year will be set at level corresponding to FMSY.
  • The TAC should not be changed by more than ±25% compared with the previous year TAC.
  • If the spawning stock falls below Bpa , the procedure for establishing TAC should be based on a fishing mortality that is linearly reduced from FMSY at Bpa to F = 0 at SSB equal to zero. At SSB-levels below Bpa in any of the operational years (current year and a year ahead) there should be no limitations on the year-to-year variations in TAC.
At the 46 th Session of the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission in 2016 it was decided to keep the existing HCR for haddock for the next five years. Quota flexibility: In 2014, JNRFC decided that from 2015 onwards, Norway and Russia can transfer to, or borrow from, the following year up to 10% of the country’s quota. ICES evaluated this HCR in 2016 (ICES, 2016) and rechecked it in 2020 (ICES, 2020). ICES concluded that the HCR is precautionary.
Table 3 Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). The basis of the advice.

Quality of the assessment

 

graphs, quality of assessment
Figure 2 Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Historical assessment results. The shaded areas indicate the 95% confidence intervals for the 2022 assessment.

 

Issues relevant for the advice

Due to the temporary suspension of Russian scientists from ICES this assessment was conducted by a Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) consisting of scientists from VNIRO (Russia), and IMR (Norway) (Howell et al. 2022).

This advice has been conducted outside ICES and should not be considered as ICES advice. However, this assessment and advice has been produced following the methodology agreed at the ICES benchmark in 2020 (ICES, 2020).

Fbar(4-7) has been above FMSY from 2018 and onwards. The assessments from 2017 to 2019 on which the TAC advice for 2018-2020 were based, had large positive retrospective biases for TSB and SSB, implying that the stock sizes were overestimated. The retrospective bias was reduced after the revision at the 2020 benchmark.

The catch in 2021 was 12% lower than the TAC.

Reference points

Table 4 Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Reference points, values, and their technical basis.
Framework Reference point Value Technical basis Source
MSY approach MSY Btrigger 80 000 tonnes Bpa ICES (2020)
FMSY 0.35 Stochastic long-term simulations ICES (2020)
Precautionary approach Blim 50 000 tonnes Bloss ICES (2020)
Bpa 80 000 tonnes Blim  × exp (1.645 ×  σ ), where σ  = 0.3 ICES (2020)
Flim 0.77 Determined from replacement line leading from SSB = 0 to the geometric mean recruitment at SSB = Blim ICES (2020)
Fpa 0.47 Flim  × exp (−1.645 ×  σ ), where σ  = 0.3 ICES (2020)
Management plan SSBMGT 80 000 tonnes Bpa ICES (2020)
FMGT 0.35 FMSY ICES (2020)

Basis of the assessment

Table 5 Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Basis of the assessment and advice.
ICES stock data category 1
Assessment type Age-based analytical assessment (SAM) that uses catches in the model.
Input data Commercial landings (international landings, ages, and length frequencies from catch sampling); four survey indices (RU-BTr-Q4 (Btr), BS-NoRU-Q1(Aco), BS-NoRu-Q1 (BTr), and Eco-NoRu-Q3 (Btr)); annual maturity and stock weight-at-age data from surveys; from 1984, the natural mortalities are derived from the consumption of haddock (ages 3–6) by cod.
Discards and bycatch Discarding is considered negligible in recent years.
Indicators None.
Other information Last benchmarked in February 2020 (ICES, 2020).
Working group Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) 

History of the advice, catch, and management

Table 6 Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). ICES advice, agreed TACs, the official and unreported landings, and ICES catches. All weights are in tonnes.
Year ICES advice Catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC Official catches Unreported landings (included in ICES catches) ICES catches
1987 No increase in F; TAC 160000 250000 154916   154916
1988 No increase in F < 240000 240000 95255   95255
1989 Large reduction in F 69000 83000 58518   58518
1990 No directed fishery - 25000 27182   27182
1991 No directed fishery - 28000 36216   36216
1992 Within safe biological limits 35000 63000 59922   59922
1993 No long-term gains in increasing F 56000 72000 82379   82379
1994 No long-term gains in F > Fmed 97000** 120000 135186   135186
1995 No long-term gains in F > Fmed 122000** 130000 142448   142448
1996 No long-term gains in F > Fmed 169000** 170000 178128   178128
1997 Well below Fmed < 242000 210000 154359   154359
1998 Below Fmed < 120000 130000 100630   100630
1999 Reduce F below Fpa < 74000 78000 83195   83195
2000 Reduce F below Fpa < 37000 62000 68944   68944
2001 Reduce F below Fpa < 66000 85000 89640   89640
2002 Reduce F below Fpa < 64000 85000 96062 18736 114798
2003 Reduce F below Fpa < 101000 101000 105700 33226 138926
2004 Reduce F below Fpa < 120000 130000 124502 33777 158279
2005 Reduce F below Fpa < 106000 117000 118015 40283 158298
2006 Reduce F below Fpa < 112000 120000 131706 21451 153157
2007 Limit catches < 130000 150000 146972 14553 161525
2008 Limit catches to 2001–2004 average < 130000 155000 149776 5828 155604
2009 Apply management plan < 194000 194000 200061 0 200061
2010 Apply management plan < 243000 243000 249200 0 249200
2011 Apply management plan < 303000 303000 309785 0 309785
2012 Apply management plan < 318000 318000 315627 0 315627
2013 Apply management plan < 238000 200000 193744 0 193744
2014 Apply management plan < 150000 178500 177522 0 177522
2015 Apply management plan < 165000 223000 194756 0 194756
2016 Apply management plan < 244000^ 244000 233416 0 233416
2017 Apply management plan ≤ 233000 233000 227588 0 227588
2018 Apply management plan ≤ 202305 202305 191276 0 191276
2019 Apply management plan ≤ 152000 172000 175402 0 175402
2020 Apply management plan ≤ 215000 215000 182468 0 182468
2021 Apply management plan ≤ 232537 232537 204743 0 204743 ^^
2022 Apply management plan ≤ 178532 178532      
2023 Apply management plan ≤ 170067 ^^        

* Coastal haddock in Norwegian statistical areas 06 and 07 (south of Lofoten) are included.

** Predicted landings at Fmed .

^ This advice was updated on 7 July 2015 in response to a special request (ICES, 2015) after a mid-year change in TAC in 2015 (from 178500 tonnes to 223000 tonnes) .

^^ In 2022 assessment and advice was carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches for 2021 and gave advice for 2023.

History of catch and landings

Table 7 Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2. History of official commercial catch and landings by country. All weights are in tonnes.
Year Faroe Islands France Fed. Rep. Germany. Greenland Norway^ Russia** Spain United Kingdom Others Unreported catches*** Total
1960 172 - 5597   46263 57025   45469 125 - 154651
1961 285 220 6304   60862 85345    39650 558 - 193224
1962 83 409 2895   54567 91910   37486 58 - 187408
1963 17 363 2554   59955 63526   19809 - - 146224
1964 - 208 1482   38695 43870   14653 250 - 99158
1965 - 226 1568   60447 41750   14345 242 - 118578
1966 - 1072 2098   82090 48710   27723 85 - 161778
1967 - 1208 1705   51954 57346   24158 26 - 136397
1968 - - 1867   64076 75654   40129 0 - 181726
1969 2 - 1490   67549 24211   37234 334 - 130820
1970 541 - 2119   37716 26802   20423 656 - 88257
1971 81 - 896   45715 15778   16373 62 - 78905
1972 137 - 1433   46700 196224   17166 4493 - 266153
1973 1212 3214 9534   86767 186534   32408 2557 - 322226
1974 925 3601 23409   66164 78548   37663 10847 - 221157
1975 299 5191 15930   55966 65015   28677 4680 - 175758
1976 536 4459 16660   49492 42485   16940 6692 - 137264
1977 213 1510 4798   40118 52210   10878 431 - 110158
1978 466 1411 1521   39955 45895   5766 408 - 95422
1979 343 1198 1948   66849 26365   6454 466 - 103623
1980 497 226 1365   66501 20706   2948 261 - 92504
1981 381 414 2402   63435 13400   1682 22 - 81736
1982 496 53 1258   43702 2900 - 827 0 - 49236
1983 428 - 729   22364 680 139 259 1 - 24600
1984 297 15 400   18813 1103 37 276 4 - 20945
1985 424 21 395   21272 22690 77 153 20 - 45052
1986 893 12 1079   52313 45738 22 431 75 - 100563
1987 464 7 3105   72419 78211 59 563 88 - 154916
1988 1113 116 1323   60823 31293 72 435 80 - 95255
1989 1217 - 171   36451 20062 1 590 26 - 58518
1990 705 - 167   20621 5190 - 494 5 - 27182
1991 1117 - 213   22178 12177 - 514 17 - 36216
1992 1093 151 387 1719 36238 19699 38 596 1 - 59922
1993 546 1215 1165 880 40978 35071 76 1802 646 - 82379
1994 2761 678 2412 770 71171 51822 22 4673 877 - 135186
1995 2833 598 2675 1097 76886 54516 14 3111 718 - 142448
1996 3743 6 942 1510 94527 74239 669 2275 217 - 178128
1997 3327 540 972 1877 103407 41228 364 2340 304 - 154359
1998 1903 241 385 854 75108 20559 257 1229 94 - 100630
1999 1913 64 641 437 48182 30520 652 694 92 - 83195
2000 631 178 880 432 42009 22738 502 747 827 - 68944
2001 1210 324 554 553 49067 34307 1497 1068 1060 - 89640
2002 1564 297 627 858 52247 37157 1505 1125 682 18736 114798
2003 1959 382 918 1363 56485 41142 1330 1018 1103 33226 138926
2004 2484 103 823 1680 62192 54347 54 1250 1569 33777 158279
2005 2138 333 996 15 60850 50012 963 1899 1262 40283 158751
2006 2390 883 989 1830 69272 53313 703 1164 1162 21451 153157
2007 2307 277 1123 1464 71244 66569 125 1351 2511 14553 161525
2008 2687 311 535 1659 72779 68792 283 971 1759 5828 155604
2009 2820 529 1957 1410 104354 85514 317 1315 1845 0 200061
2010 3173 764 3539 1970 123384 111372 379 1758 2862 0 249200
2011 1759 268 1724 2110 158202 139912 502 1379 3929 0 309785
2012 2055 322 1111 3984 159602 143886 441 833 3393 0 315627
2013 1886 342 500 1795 99215 85668 439 639 3260 0 193744
2014 1470 198 340 1150 91306 78725 187 355 3791 0 177522
2015 2459 145 124 1047 95094 91864 246 450 3327 0 194756
2016 2460 340 170 1401 108718 115710 200 575 3838 0 233416
2017 2776 108 170 1810 113132 106714 228 372 2279 0 227588
2018 2333 183 385 1317 93839 90486 169 453 2173 0 191276
2019 1515 143 204 1208 93860 76125 280 456 1611 0 175402
2020 1392 96 282 910 88108 89030 45 320 2286 0 182468
2021*^^ 1722 105 365 1101 100673 98296 131 78 2272 0 204743

* Provisional figures.

** USSR prior to 1991.

*** Figures based on Norwegian/Russian illegal, unreported, and unregulated fisheries (IUU) estimates.

^ Landings of coastal haddock in Norwegian statistical areas 06 and 07 (south of Lofoten) are included from 1983.

^^In 2022 assessment and advice was carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches for 2021 and gave advice for 2023.

Summary of the assessment

Table 8 Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assessment summary. High and low refer to 95% confidence bounds.
Year Recruitment (thousands) SSB (tonnes) Total catch (tonnes) F
Age 3 High Low SSB High Low Ages 4–7 High Low
1950 71954 46160 112161 214279 192049 239082 132125 0.757 0.64 0.895
1951 662668 429436 1022572 126110 112047 141939 120077 0.683 0.576 0.811
1952 87684 56210 136781 101799 88941 116517 127660 0.713 0.597 0.852
1953 1236112 814474 1876024 120561 104157 139550 123920 0.536 0.443 0.648
1954 132692 85171 206726 174538 148014 205816 156788 0.43 0.354 0.522
1955 58481 37134 92100 313360 267430 367179 202286 0.447 0.371 0.539
1956 229412 146973 358093 367219 312961 430885 213924 0.472 0.392 0.569
1957 60191 38357 94452 253094 217114 295035 123583 0.426 0.355 0.512
1958 72727 46696 113271 181736 157983 209059 112672 0.517 0.43 0.622
1959 388917 256300 590152 125293 108818 144263 88211 0.444 0.366 0.538
1960 319617 209398 487852 112867 99564 127948 154651 0.54 0.45 0.646
1961 144191 94743 219445 124747 111163 139991 193224 0.663 0.561 0.785
1962 294721 194343 446943 125047 111195 140626 187408 0.793 0.674 0.934
1963 313728 208414 472257 94205 82955 106980 146224 0.761 0.638 0.907
1964 352219 232640 533263 84357 74141 95980 99158 0.632 0.525 0.762
1965 126309 82135 194241 103060 89956 118073 118578 0.524 0.433 0.633
1966 313027 205139 477656 145581 126799 167144 161778 0.559 0.465 0.671
1967 341917 223471 523142 151115 130284 175276 136397 0.441 0.364 0.534
1968 18033 11181 29084 168049 145535 194044 181726 0.483 0.398 0.585
1969 20492 12780 32859 167756 144118 195271 130820 0.412 0.336 0.504
1970 209907 135812 324426 155327 131740 183137 88257 0.383 0.31 0.473
1971 108513 69785 168732 127578 107522 151376 78905 0.326 0.261 0.407
1972 1066297 686314 1656659 128558 111671 147997 266153 0.655 0.536 0.8
1973 309863 204061 470519 125538 107980 145951 322226 0.537 0.439 0.657
1974 65777 42815 101054 153803 134044 176476 221157 0.502 0.414 0.609
1975 59215 38571 90908 195116 167179 227722 175758 0.497 0.415 0.595
1976 61657 39505 96230 196497 168938 228551 137264 0.72 0.606 0.854
1977 120878 76578 190806 118927 100298 141017 110158 0.738 0.609 0.894
1978 214299 141229 325173 81230 67275 98081 95422 0.625 0.507 0.769
1979 161196 105893 245381 62550 52626 74344 103623 0.582 0.468 0.722
1980 22214 13770 35836 62876 53385 74055 87889 0.472 0.378 0.588
1981 10373 6182 17404 72926 61649 86267 77153 0.433 0.347 0.54
1982 16685 10270 27106 68721 56827 83105 46955 0.38 0.302 0.478
1983 8517 5013 14472 58413 47945 71166 24600 0.35 0.274 0.448
1984 13170 8117 21369 53238 43378 65339 20945 0.315 0.244 0.406
1985 360421 236188 550001 49175 40893 59134 45052 0.395 0.31 0.504
1986 480423 315598 731331 54932 46581 64781 100563 0.535 0.425 0.673
1987 90168 58164 139782 77886 66612 91068 154916 0.63 0.506 0.784
1988 39086 24572 62172 79981 67314 95032 95255 0.51 0.408 0.637
1989 28690 17838 46145 84497 69604 102576 58518 0.373 0.296 0.47
1990 36995 23783 57547 85921 69888 105632 27182 0.211 0.165 0.269
1991 111064 78155 157832 100599 84419 119880 36216 0.239 0.191 0.3
1992 328345 233437 461840 111029 95914 128527 59922 0.295 0.238 0.365
1993 847060 614155 1168288 125586 110671 142511 82379 0.317 0.258 0.39
1994 398541 321655 493805 154808 138283 173307 135186 0.372 0.307 0.451
1995 101169 79053 129473 188058 167539 211090 142448 0.298 0.25 0.355
1996 100698 79043 128284 217720 194150 244150 178128 0.365 0.31 0.429
1997 120498 94753 153239 188657 168178 211630 154359 0.444 0.376 0.525
1998 63525 49193 82032 131664 116654 148606 100630 0.451 0.378 0.539
1999 151800 121599 189502 95277 84396 107561 83195 0.463 0.384 0.557
2000 83531 65493 106537 78591 69508 88860 68944 0.341 0.28 0.417
2001 369908 302935 451687 92000 82049 103159 89640 0.367 0.305 0.442
2002 397842 324975 487048 109706 97927 122903 114798 0.353 0.294 0.425
2003 342420 275510 425581 137919 123784 153669 138926 0.425 0.359 0.503
2004 262688 214934 321052 156548 140497 174432 158279 0.388 0.33 0.457
2005 369114 303533 448865 168006 150852 187110 158298 0.404 0.344 0.475
2006 158484 128452 195538 152111 136464 169553 153157 0.369 0.313 0.436
2007 546307 446462 668482 154138 138541 171491 161525 0.385 0.326 0.456
2008 1118238 923680 1353778 163581 145927 183371 155604 0.316 0.264 0.379
2009 1032328 855199 1246143 184743 164860 207025 200061 0.261 0.218 0.312
2010 242169 197117 297516 250124 222925 280640 249200 0.245 0.207 0.291
2011 118630 94061 149618 358639 319475 402603 309785 0.256 0.218 0.301
2012 343696 280562 421036 477985 422713 540483 315627 0.221 0.187 0.26
2013 120201 95747 150901 525035 462748 595705 193744 0.148 0.124 0.176
2014 415161 340548 506123 524516 465653 590819 177522 0.154 0.128 0.184
2015 73229 57412 93404 499511 448301 556572 194756 0.189 0.158 0.225
2016 214907 173580 266072 492548 442909 547750 233183 0.259 0.219 0.307
2017 197724 160085 244212 412857 373794 456002 227588 0.349 0.296 0.412
2018 370008 299579 456994 306676 276535 340103 191276 0.402 0.34 0.475
2019 831409 682866 1012264 237709 213456 264719 175402 0.432 0.362 0.515
2020 449467 366822 550732 204215 181387 229916 182468 0.435 0.36 0.525
2021 164246 128805 209438 199550 173606 229372 204743 0.42 0.34 0.518
2022 38431 25191 58630 216456 176604 265300        

References

Howell et al. 2022. Report of the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG). IMR-PINRO no.6-2022.

ICES. 2015. Norway and Russia request to ICES for revised advice for Haddock in Subareas I and II . In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2015. ICES Advice 2015, Book 3, Section 3.2.3.1. 9 pp. http://www.ices.dk/sites/pub/Publication%20Reports/Advice/2015/Special_Requests/Norway_Russia_had-arct_update.pdf .

ICES 2016. Report of the second Workshop on Management Plan Evaluation on Northeast Arctic cod and haddock and Barents Sea capelin (WKNEAMP-2) , 25-28 January 2016, Kirkenes, Norway. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:47, 76 pp.

JNRFC. 2016. Protocol of the 46th Session of the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission, 17–20 October 2016 (In Russian). 117 pp. Available at: http://www.jointfish.com/rus/content/download/502/6357/file/46-russisk.pdf .

ICES. 2020. Benchmark Workshop for Demersal Species (WKDEM). ICES Scientific Reports, 2:31. 136 pp. http://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5548 .

ICES. 2021. Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG). ICES Scientific Reports. 3:58. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.8196.