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Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea capelin in 2023

— ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W

Author(s): Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG)

Report series: IMR-PINRO 2022-7 Published: 18.10.2022 Updated: 08.11.2022
Approved by: Research Director(s): Geir Huse Program leader(s):

Summary

Incorrectly listed biomass for immature stock in 2022 in table 9 was corrected on 08.11.2022.

Stock Name: Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W)

 

Advice on fishing opportunities

The Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) advises that when the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission management plan is applied, catches in 2023 should be no more than 62 000 tonnes.

Stock development over time

Spawning‑stock size is above Blim . No reference points for fishing pressure have been defined for this stock.

ICES standard figures
Figure 1 Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Catch, recruitment, survey biomass (age 1+, maturing (> 14cm) and immature (< 14 cm) stock biomass), and SSB (1 April) with 5 and 95 % confidence limits. The biomass reference points relate to SSB. Survey biomass and recruitment values are estimates from the acoustic survey completed by the beginning of October. The recruitment plot is shown only from 1981 onwards since earlier estimates of age 1 capelin are based on incomplete survey-area coverage. No correction for incomplete area coverage is applied to biomasses and recruitment in 2022. SSB estimates are shown only from 1989 onwards because a different model was used previously, and uncertainty estimates are only available from 2018 onwards.

 

Catch scenarios

Calculations of catch scenarios are based on a forward projection from the autumn acoustic survey. It involves that SSB for April 2023 is calculated by taking into account predation by immature cod and other sources of natural mortality. A catch scenario that results in SSB greater than 200 000 tonnes with 95% probability corresponds to the JNRFC Management Plan.

Variable Value Notes
Maturing stock biomass 2022 1 680 000 Median biomass of fish above the length‑at‑maturity (14 cm), estimated based on the autumn acoustic survey 1 October 2022 with compensation for incomplete spatial coverage. These fish will be spawning in April 2023; tonnes.
Predation by immature cod January–March 2023; from the predation model 627 000 Based on the prediction of cod abundance in 2023 from the 2022 cod stock assessment (Anon, 2022a); tonnes.
Table 1. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast. All weights are in tonnes.
Basis Total catch (2023) Median SSB (2023) P (SSB 2023 > 200 000 t) in % % TAC change * % advice change * *
ICES advice basis
MP harvest control rule, P (SSB > 200 000 t) = 95% 62 000 534 000 95 -11 -11
Other scenarios
F=0 0 586 000 98 -100 -100
Other approaches for compensating for incomplete spatial coverage and applying management plan
Area adjustment drawn from 9 (2007-2013, 2017 and 2021) instead of 5 years, i.e. including years with high biomass of maturing capelin, but different age compositions in the stock 21 000 440 000 95 -70 -70
Predicting from 2021 survey with added uncertainty buffer 31 000 439 000 95 -56 -56
Predicting from 2021 survey without added uncertainty buffer 72 000 413 000 95 +3 +3
No compensation (survey estimate from Norwegian vessels only used) 0 278 000 82 -100 -100
Table 2. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Annual catch scenarios. P = probability. All weights are in tonnes.

* TAC (2023) vs. TAC (2022).

** Advice (2023) vs Advice (2022)

 

graf, maturing stock
Figure 2 Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Probabilistic prognosis of SSB for the maturing stock from 1 October 2022 to 1 April 2023, based on the acoustic survey estimate from autumn 2022 upscaled based on proportion biomass of maturing capelin in the covered area in 2009-2013, assuming a catch of 62 000 tonnes. The median and the 5th, 25th, 75th, and 95th percentiles of the distribution are shown.

 

Basis of the advice

Advice basis Management plan
Management plan In 2002, the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission (JNRFC) adopted the following harvest control rule (HCR) for Barents Sea capelin: ‘ The TAC for the following year should be set so that, with 95% probability, at least 200 000 tonnes of capelin (B lim ) will be allowed to spawn ’. ICES evaluated this HCR as well as alternative HCRs suggested by JNRFC in 2016 (ICES, 2016), and only the existing HCR was found to be precautionary. Following ICES evaluation, the JNRFC decided to maintain the existing HCR (JNRFC, 2016) but decided that the HCR should be evaluated again in 2021. Such an evaluation has not yet been conducted.

Table 3. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). The basis of the advice.

Quality of the assessment

The survey coverage in the autumn of 2022 was incomplete with no coverage of the Russian EEZ (Fig 3). Two approaches were explored to compensate for the incomplete spatial coverage. The spatial distribution of capelin varies considerably between years, depending on the stock size and composition as well as climate. In 2014, a large part of the core capelin area was covered with ice, and the distribution in comparable years with complete spatial coverage was used to compensate for the incomplete survey coverage. The approach chosen here is consistent with the 2014 compensation approach.

The biomass of maturing fish from the survey was scaled based on the proportion in the covered area in previous years with both comparable stock biomass and age composition. For these comparable years (2009-2013, distributions shown in Fig. 4), the proportion of maturing capelin biomass in the Norwegian and Russian EEZs from the survey was estimated. The fraction of the biomass of maturing capelin in the Norwegian EEZ was used as a scaling factor. In the projections used in the assessment, this scaling factor was drawn randomly from the comparable years.

This approach gave median biomass at October 1 2022 of 1.68 million tonnes and gave a quota advice of 62 000 tonnes, corresponding to a 95% probability of SSB> Blim on 1 April 2023.

The alternative approach was to make a prediction from the 2021 estimate to 2022 and use that as a starting point for the simulations. This approach gave a similar stock biomass and yielded quota levels from 31 000 to 72 000 tonnes depending on different uncertainty assumptions and data used. We also explored the first approach including years with high biomass of maturing capelin, but different age composition (i.e. years 2007-2013, 2017 and 2021 were included). This scenario gave a quota level of 21 000 tonnes. Without compensating for the incomplete survey coverage, the advice will be 0 tonnes. Details of these runs are given in Table 4.

Basis Total catch (2023) Median biomass of maturing capelin 1 October 2022 Median SSB ( 1 April 2023) , no catch 5% percentile of SSB 1 April 2023 , no catch
Advice basis, i. e. area adjustment drawn from 5 years, (2009-2013), years with high biomass of maturing capelin and similar age composition 62 000 1 628 000 586 000 250 000
Area adjustment drawn from 9 instead of 5 years, (2007-2013, 2017, 2021) i. e. including years with high biomass of maturing capelin but with different age compositions 21 000 1 260 000 455 000 215 000
Predicting from 2021 survey with added uncertainty 31 000 1 350 000 464 000 225 000
Predicting from 2021 survey without added uncertainty 72 000 1 380 000 471 000 256 000
No compensation for incomplete area coverage (survey estimate from Norwegian zone only used) 0 833 000 278 000 148 000
Table 4. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Catches and biomasses for various assessment approaches. All weights are in tonnes.

 

kollasj, kartmodeller
Figure 3 Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Geographical distribution of capelin from autumn 2019-2022, as observed in the acoustic survey used to provide advice

 

kartmodeller
Figure 4 Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Geographical distribution of capelin from the acoustic survey in autumn 2009-2013, for which years distribution of biomass of maturing capelin was used to compensate for incomplete survey coverage in the advice for 2023.

 

Issues relevant for the advice

Due to the temporary suspension of Russian scientists from ICES, this assessment was conducted by a Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) consisting of scientists from VNIRO (Russia) and IMR (Norway) (Anon., 2022b). This advice has been conducted outside ICES and should not be considered as ICES advice. However, this assessment and advice has been produced following the methodology agreed at the ICES benchmark in 2015 (ICES, 2015).

The maturing year classes (2019 and 2020) are relatively abundant. However, owing to a low mean weight at age this has not led to a high maturing biomass and catch advice.

Reference points

Framework Reference point Value Technical basis Source
MSY approach MSY Btrigger      
FMSY      
Precautionary approach Blim 200 000  Value set above SSB 1989 , which was the lowest SSB that has produced a good year class. SSB estimated on April 1; tonnes ICES (2001), Gjøsæter et al . (2002).
Bpa      
Flim      
Fpa      
Management plan Bmgt No specific value The B mgt used in the HCR corresponds to 95% probability of the SSB being above B lim (200 000 tonnes) JNRFC (2016)
Fmgt      
Table 5 Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Reference points, values, and their technical basis.

Basis of the assessment

ICES stock data category 1 ( ICES, 2021b ).
Assessment type Model based on acoustic survey and prediction six months ahead to calculate spawning biomass. Target escapement strategy used.
Input data Norwegian–Russian acoustic survey in September. Model estimates of maturation based on survey data. Natural mortalities from multispecies model (predation by immature cod on prespawning capelin based on information on cod distribution, abundance and stomach content data) .
Discards and bycatch All catches are assumed to be landed. The amount of bycaught capelin in other fisheries is very low.
Indicators None.
Other information Latest benchmark was in 2015 (ICES, 2015).
Working group Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG).
Table 6 Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Basis of the assessment and advice.

History of the advice, catch, and management

Year ICES advice Catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC ICES catch
1987 Catches at the lowest practical level 0 0 0
1988 No catch 0 0 0
1989 No catch 0 0 0
1990 No catch 0 0 0
1991 TAC 1000000 900000 933000
1992 SSB > 400 000–500000 t 834000 1100000 1123000
1993 A cautious approach, SSB > 400 000–500 000 t 600000 630000 586000
1994 No fishing 0 0 0
1995 No fishing 0 0 0
1996 No fishing 0 0 0
1997 No fishing 0 0 1000
1998 No fishing 0 0 3000
1999 SSB > 500 000 t 79000 80000 101000
2000 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 435000 435000 414000
2001 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 630000 630000 568000
2002 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 650000 650000 651000
2003 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 310000 310000 282000
2004 No fishing 0 0 0
2005 No fishing 0 0 1000*
2006 No fishing 0 0 0
2007 No fishing 0 0 4000*
2008 No fishing 0 0 12000*
2009 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 390000 390000 307000
2010 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 360000 360000 323000
2011 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 380000 380000 360000
2012 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 320000 320000 296000
2013 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 200000 200000 177000
2014 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 65000 65000 66000
2015 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 6000 120000 115000
2016 Zero catch 0 0 0
2017 Zero catch 0 0 0
2018 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 205000 205000 194520
2019 Zero catch 0 0 ** 53*
2020 Management plan 0 0** 31*
2021 Management plan 0 0** 10*
2022 Management plan ≤ 70000 70000 6524 6***
2023 Management plan *** ≤ 62000    
Table 7 Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). ICES advice, agreed TAC, and catch. All weights are in tonnes.

* Research catch and bycatches in other fisheries

** Up to 500 tonnes was allowed for research survey catches.

*** In 2022 assessment and advice was carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches for 2022 and gave advice for 2023.

History of catch and landings

Year Winter Summer–Autumn Year total
Norway Russia Others Total Norway Russia Total
1965 217000 7000 0 224000 0 0 0 224000
1966 380000 9000 0 389000 0 0 0 389000
1967 403000 6000 0 409000 0 0 0 409000
1968 460000 15000 0 475000 62000 0 62000 537000
1969 436000 1000 0 437000 243000 0 243000 680000
1970 955000 8000 0 963000 346000 5000 351000 1314000
1971 1300000 14000 0 1314000 71000 7000 78000 1392000
1972 1208000 24000 0 1232000 347000 13000 360000 1591000
1973 1078000 34000 0 1112000 213000 12000 225000 1337000
1974 749000 63000 0 812000 237000 99000 336000 1148000
1975 559000 301000 43000 903000 407000 131000 538000 1441000
1976 1252000 228000 0 1480000 739000 368000 1107000 2587000
1977 1441000 317000 2000 1760000 722000 504000 1226000 2986000
1978 784000 429000 25000 1238000 360000 318000 678000 1916000
1979 539000 342000 5000 886000 570000 326000 896000 1782000
1980 539000 253000 9000 801000 459000 388000 847000 1648000
1981 784000 429000 28000 1241000 454000 292000 746000 1986000
1982 568000 260000 5000 833000 591000 336000 927000 1760000
1983 751000 373000 36000 1160000 758000 439000 1197000 2357000
1984 330000 257000 42000 629000 481000 368000 849000 1477000
1985 340000 234000 17000 591000 113000 164000 277000 868000
1986 72000 51000 0 123000 0 0 0 123000
1987 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1989 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1990 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991 528000 159000 20000 707000 31000 195000 226000 933000
1992 620000 247000 24000 891000 73000 159000 232000 1123000
1993 402000 170000 14000 586000 0 0 0 586000
1994 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1995 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1996 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1997 0 0 0 0 0 1000 1000 1000
1998 0 2000 0 2000 0 1000 1000 3000
1999 50000 33000 0 83000 0 22000 22000 105000
2000 279000 94000 8000 381000 0 29000 29000 410000
2001 376000 180000 8000 564000 0 14000 14000 578000
2002 398000 228000 17000 643000 0 16000 16000 659000
2003 180000 93000 9000 282000 0 0 0 282000
2004 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2005 1000 0 0 1000 0 0 0 1000
2006 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2007 2000 2000 0 4000 0 0 0 4000
2008 5000 5000 0 10000 0 2000 2000 12000
2009 233000 73000 0 306000 0 1000 1000 307000
2010 246000 77000 0 323000 0 0 0 323000
2011 273000 87000 0 360000 0 0 0 360000
2012 228000 68000 0 296000 0 0 0 296000
2013 116000 60000 0 177000 0 0 0 177000
2014 40000 26000 0 66000 0 0 0 66000
2015 71000 44000 0 115000 0 0 0 115000
2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018 128520 66000 0 194520 0 0 0 194520
2019 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 53
2020 9 0 0 9 0 21 0 31
2021 2 0 0 2 0 8 0 10
2022 42597 22646 0 65243 0 3* 3* 65246*
Table 8 Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). The history of official catches is presented for each country participating in the fishery. All weights are in tonnes.

* Bycatch in other fisheries; values are preliminary.

Summary of the assessment

Year Predicted SSB assuming catch = ICES advised catch, 1 April Recruitment from autumn acoustic survey, 1 October Stock biomass from autumn acoustic survey, 1 October Catch
Median 5th percentile 95th percentile Immature Maturing biomass
tonnes Age 1, thousands tonnes
1972         3873000 2727000 1591000
1973         3794000 1350000 1337000
1974         4826000 907000 1148000
1975         4890000 2916000 1441000
1976         3217000 3200000 2587000
1977         2120000 2676000 2986000
1978         2845000 1402000 1916000
1979         2935000 1227000 1782000
1980         2802000 3913000 1648000
1981       402600000 2344000 1551000 1986000
1982       528300000 2188000 1591000 1760000
1983       514900000 2901000 1329000 2357000
1984       154800000 1756000 1208000 1477000
1985       38700000 575000 285000 868000
1986       6000000 55000 65000 123000
1987       37600000 84000 17000 0
1988       21000000 228000 200000 0
1989 84000     189200000 689000 175000 0
1990 92000     700400000 3214000 2617000 0
1991 643000     402100000 5039000 2248000 933000
1992 302000     351300000 2922000 2228000 1123000
1993 293000     2200000 466000 330000 586000
1994 139000     19800000 106000 94000 0
1995 60000     7100000 75000 118000 0
1996 60000     81900000 255000 248000 0
1997 85000     98900000 597000 312000 1000
1998 94000     179000000 1124000 932000 3000
1999 382000     156000000 1057000 1718000 105000
2000 599000     449200000 2175000 2098000 410000
2001 626000     113600000 1611000 2019000 578000
2002 496000     59700000 919000 1291000 659000
2003 427000     82400000 253000 280000 282000
2004 94000     51200000 334000 294000 0
2005 122000     26900000 150000 174000 1000
2006 72000     60100000 350000 437000 0
2007 189000     221700000 1275000 844000 4000
2008 330000     313000000 1960000 2468000 12000
2009 517000     124000000 1442000 2323000 307000
2010 504000     248200000 1449000 2051000 323000
2011 487000     209600000 1592000 2115000 360000
2012 504000     145900000 1589000 1997000 296000
2013 479000     324500000 2485000 1471000 177000
2014 399000     105100000 1076000 873000 66000
2015 504000     39500000 467000 375000 115000
2016 82000     31600000 147000 181000 0
2017 37000     86400000 783000 1723000 0
2018 462000 200000 930000 58600000 541000 1056000 194520
2019 317000 168282 613733 17455060 109533 301615 53
2020 85110 38830 171850 366430000 1351470 532820 31
2021 156376 75197 314559 220850000 2559660 1437960 10
2022 423751 201897 838670 75460000* 1356191* 817480* 6524 6
2023 534000 201000 1250000        
Table 9. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Assessment summary. Weights are in tonnes, recruitment in thousands. Recruitment and stock biomass in 1985 and earlier are survey estimates, back-calculated to 1 August (before the autumn fishing season); from 1986 and later, these values are based on the survey estimates with no back-calculation. Maturing biomass is the survey estimate of fish above the length-at-maturity (14 cm). Predicted SSB is the modelled stochastic spawning-stock biomass (after the winter fishery).

*Not adjusted for incomplete survey coverage

References

Anon. 2022 a . Report of the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) 2022. IMR-PINRO report series 6-2022, 213 pp.

Anon. 2022b. Report of capelin assessment by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) 2022 . IMR-PINRO report series 8-2022, xx pp.

Gjøsæter, H., Bogstad, B., and Tjelmeland, S. 2002. Assessment methodology for Barents Sea capelin, Mallotus villosus (Müller). ICES Journal of Marine Science, 59(5): 1086–1095. https://doi.org/10.1006/jmsc.2002.1238.

ICES. 2001. Barents Sea capelin (Subareas I and II, excluding Division IIa west of 5°W). In Report of the Advisory Committee on Fishery Management, 2001, Part 1, Section 3.1.8, pp. 65–70. ICES Cooperative Research Report No. 246. 921 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5383.

ICES. 2015. Report of the Benchmark Workshop on Arctic Stocks (WKARCT), 26–30 January 2015, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2015/ACOM:31. 126 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5295 .

ICES. 2016. Report of the second Workshop on Management Plan Evaluation on Northeast Arctic cod and haddock and Barents Sea capelin, 25–28 January 2016, Kirkenes, Norway. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:47. 76 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5296.

JNRFC. 2016. Protocol of the 46th Session of the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission, Annex 12. Translated from Norwegian to English. For an accurate interpretation, please consult the text in the official languages of the Commission (Norwegian and Russian) at https://www.jointfish.com/content/download/501/6352/file/46-norsk.pdf (Norwegian) and https://www.jointfish.com/rus/content/download/502/6357/file/46-russisk.pdf (Russian).