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Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea shrimp in 2024

Author(s): Carsten Hvingel and Fabian Zimmermann (IMR)

Rapportserie: IMR-PINRO 2023-12 Publisert: 19.12.2023
Forskningsgruppe(r): Bentiske ressurser og prosesser Tema: Reke – Barentshavet Program: Barentshavet og Polhavet
Approved by: Research Director(s): Geir Huse Program leader(s): Maria Fossheim

English summary

1 - Advice on fishing opportunities

Based on the MSY approach and an updated assessment methodology endorsed by an international panel of experts in 2022 (ICES 2022), the catches in 2024 should not exceed 143 000 tonnes.

2 - Stock development over time

Fishing pressure on the stock is below FMSY and Flim and stock biomass is above MSY Btrigger and Blim .

Figur 1
Figure 1: Northern shrimp in subareas 1 and 2. Summary of the stock assessment. Top: total catches (paler bar indicates catches based on preliminary information). Bottom: fishing mortality (left) and stock biomass (right) relative to FMSY and BMSY, respectively. Lines show medians and shaded areas indicate the 95% confidence intervals.

3 - Catch scenarios

Variable Value Notes
Mean F2023/F MSY 0.44 Corresponds to the estimated catch in 2023.
Median B 2023 /B MSY 1.58 B2023 is the biomass at the end of 2023, considering the estimated catch in 2023.
Catch 2023 78 643 Preliminary data. All catches are assumed to be landed.
Table 1: Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. The basis for the catch scenarios.
Basis Fish at Fmsy Fmsy mode Constant catch
      100kt 125kt 150kt 175kt
Catches (kt) 174 143 100 125 150 175
Stock size (B/B msy ) 1.48 1.51 1.56 1.53 1.50 1.47
Fishing mortality (F/F msy ) 1.00 0.82 0.56 0.71 0.86 1.01
Probability of falling below B lim 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Probability of falling below MSY B trigger 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Probability of exceeding F msy 50.0% 38.9% 21.1% 31.6% 41.5% 50.5%
Probability of exceeding F lim 23.0% 15.4% 6.2% 11.2% 17.1% 23.4%
Table 2: Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Annual catch scenarios for 2024.

4 - Basis of the advice

Advice basis MSY approach using F MSY mode.
Management plan No agreed precautionary management plan for northern shrimp in this area.
Table 3: Northern shrimp in subareas 1 and 2. The basis of the advice.

5 - Quality of assessment

Data from the part of the 2022 survey area that was not used in the previous assessment due to delayed coverage was now included. All the survey data for 2023 was available at the time of the assessment. The quality of the input data can therefore be considered as good.

The stock was benchmarked in 2022 (ICES, 2022). Revised methods for estimation of CPUE and survey index, updated stock priors and a change to SPiCT were accepted. Combined, these changes resulted in a lower estimate of BMSY and FMSY but did not alter the overall trends over time or the perception of the state of the stock with respect to reference points. Compared to the pre-benchmark assessment in 2021, the 2022 assessment resulted in a downward revision of stock biomass and an upward revision of F compared to previous assessments (Figure 2). This year’s assessment is in line with the 2022 assessment (IMR-PINRO 2023).

Figure 2: Northern shrimp in subareas 1 and 2. Historical assessment results. Black lines show B/BMSY and F/ FMSY trends as assessed in prior years, dark-blue lines the current assessment, and shaded areas the 95% confidence intervals of the current assessment. The stock assessment has undergone revisions during a benchmark in 2022. Figure 2: Northern shrimp in subareas 1 and 2. Historical assessment results. Black lines show B/B MSY and F/ F MSY trends as assessed in prior years, dark-blue lines the current assessment, and shaded areas the 95% confidence intervals of the current assessment. The stock assessment has undergone revisions during a benchmark in 2022.

6 - Issues relevant for the advice

The advice was derived by IMR (Institute of Marine Research) based on the assessment framework endorsed in 2022 by the benchmark workshop on Pandalus stocks (WKPRAWN) (ICES 2022). The mode of the probability distribution of F MSY is used as the basis for the advice, given the higher uncertainty on the right-hand side of its probability distribution. Catches corresponding to the fishing mortality at median F MSY would imply catches of 174 000 tonnes in 2024.

7 - Reference points

Framework Reference point Value Technical basis Source
MSY approach MSY B trigger 0.5 x B MSY = 0.25 x K * Relative value. B MSY is estimated directly from the assessment model and changes when the assessment is updated. ICES (2013)
MSY approach F MSY r/2 Relative value. F MSY is estimated directly from the assessment model and changes when the assessment is updated. ICES (2013)
Precautionary approach B lim 0.3 x B MSY 50% of MSY ICES (2013)
Precautionary approach B pa Not defined **  
Precautionary approach F lim 1.7 x F MSY Relative value (the F that drives the stock to B lim )* ICES (2013)
Precautionary approach F pa Not defined    
Management plan B mgt Not defined    
Management plan F mgt Not defined    
* Fishing mortality is presented in relation to F MSY , and total stock biomass is presented in relation to B MSY . K is the carrying capacity and r is the intrinsic biomass growth rate. These values are directly estimated from the stock assessment and change when the assessment is updated.
** B pa and F pa are not defined. The assessment provides probability distributions for B and F, so it is possible to directly estimate the probabilities of B < B lim and of F > F lim .
Table 4: Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Reference points, values, and their technical basis.

8 - Basis of the assessment

Assessment type Surplus production in continuous time (SPiCT)
Input data Fishery catches since 1970. Three survey indices: the Norwegian shrimp survey 1982–2004 [G3653], the Russian shrimp survey 1984–2005 [G4941], and the Norwegian–Russian ecosystem survey (Eco-Norw-Q3 [A5216]) since 2004; one fishery-based index (standardized CPUE from Norwegian logbooks) since 1980.
Discards and bycatch Discarding is considered to be negligible.
Indicators None
Other information None
Table 5: Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Basis of the assessment and advice.

9 - History of the advice, catch, and management

Year Advice Catches corresponding to advice Agreed TAC Reported landings
2005 No increase compared to 2004 43600 - 42618
2006 No increase in catch above recent level 40000 - 29627
2007 Catch that will prevent exceeding F lim in the long term 50000 - 29931
2008 Catch that will prevent exceeding F lim in the long term 50000 - 28188
2009 Catch that will prevent exceeding F lim in the long term 50000 - 27272
2010 Catch that will prevent exceeding F lim in the long term 50000 - 25198
2011 Catch that will prevent exceeding F MSY in the long term 60000 - 30226
2012 Catch that will prevent exceeding F MSY in the long term 60000 - 24756
2013 Catch that will maintain stock at current high biomass 60000 - 19249
2014 No new advice, same as for 2013 60000 - 20964
2015 Move exploitation towards F MSY < 70000 - 34022
2016 Move exploitation towards F MSY < 70000 - 30749
2017 Move exploitation towards F MSY ≤ 70000 - 30442
2018 MSY approach: move exploitation towards F MSY ≤ 70000 - 56341
2019 MSY approach: move exploitation towards F MSY ≤ 70000 - 76086
2020 MSY approach: mode of the F MSY distribution as basis of advice ≤ 150000 - 61877
2021 MSY approach: mode of the F MSY distribution as basis of advice ≤ 140000 - 58030
2022 MSY approach: mode of the F MSY distribution as basis of advice ≤ 140000 - 63970
2023 MSY approach: mode of the F MSY distribution as basis of advice ** ≤ 156000 - * 78643
2024 MSY approach: mode of the F MSY distribution as basis of advice ** ≤ 143000    
Table 6: Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. ICES advice and official landings. All weights are in tonnes.

* Estimated total catches based on reported catches up to November.

** In 2022 and 2023 assessment and advice was carried out by IMR which compiled catches for 2022 and 2023 and gave advice for 2023 and 2024.

10 - History of the catch and landings

Year Norway Russia Others Total
1970 5508 0 0 5508
1971 5116 0 26 5142
1972 6772 0 0 6772
1973 6921 0 0 6921
1974 8008 0 0 8008
1975 8197 0 2 8199
1976 9752 0 0 9752
1977 14700 0 4854 19554
1978 20484 18270 189 38943
1979 25435 10474 390 36299
1980 35061 11219 0 46280
1981 32713 9886 1011 43610
1982 43451 15552 3835 62838
1983 70798 29105 4903 104806
1984 76636 43180 8246 128062
1985 82123 32104 10262 124489
1986 48569 10216 6538 65323
1987 31353 6690 5324 43367
1988 32021 12320 4348 48689
1989 47064 12252 3432 62748
1990 54182 20295 6687 81164
1991 39663 29434 6156 75253
1992 39657 20944 8021 68622
1993 32663 22397 806 55866
1994 20162 7108 1063 28333
1995 19337 3564 2319 25220
1996 25445 5747 3320 34512
1997 29079 1493 5163 35735
1998 44792 4895 6103 55790
1999 52612 10765 12293 75670
2000 55333 19596 5768 80697
2001 43031 5846 8408 57285
2002 48799 3790 8899 61488
2003 34172 2776 2277 39225
2004 35918 2410 4406 42734
2005 37253 435 4930 42618
2006 27352 4 2271 29627
2007 25558 192 4180 29930
2008 20662 417 7109 28188
2009 19784 0 7489 27273
2010 16776 0 8419 25195
2011 19928 0 10298 30226
2012 14159 5 10600 24763
2013 8846 1067 9335 19248
2014 10234 741 9989 20964
2015 16618 1151 16253 34022
2016 10898 2491 17359 30749
2017 7010 3849 19582 30442
2018 23126 12561 20654 56341
2019 23925 28081 21576 73582
2020 19116 21265 18000 58380
2021 30177 12379 13085 55642
2022 *** 35330 3790 24850 * 63970
2023 *** 36535 12288 29820 ** 78643
* Preliminary data.
** Estimated total catches based on reported catches up to November. *** In 2022 and 2023 assessment and advice was carried out by IMR which compiled catches for 2022 and 2023 and gave advice for 2023 and 2024.
Table 7: Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. ICES catches (tonnes). “Others” are EU, UK, Iceland, Faroes, and Greenland.

11 - Summary of the assessment

Year Stock biomass relative to B MSY Total catch Fishing mortality relative to F MSY
B/ B MSY Low High tonnes F/ F MSY Low High
1970 1.46 0.89 2.41 5508 0.03 0.01 0.12
1971 1.52 0.92 2.50 5142 0.03 0.01 0.13
1972 1.59 0.97 2.63 6772 0.04 0.01 0.15
1973 1.60 0.98 2.63 6921 0.04 0.01 0.16
1974 1.62 1.00 2.63 8008 0.04 0.01 0.18
1975 1.59 1.00 2.54 8199 0.05 0.01 0.18
1976 1.71 1.11 2.64 9752 0.06 0.02 0.25
1977 2.03 1.36 3.04 19554 0.12 0.03 0.48
1978 2.11 1.46 3.06 38943 0.16 0.04 0.64
1979 2.04 1.49 2.80 36299 0.17 0.04 0.67
1980 2.23 1.66 3.01 46280 0.18 0.05 0.69
1981 2.40 1.78 3.23 43610 0.18 0.05 0.69
1982 2.55 1.90 3.44 62838 0.28 0.07 1.08
1983 2.83 2.10 3.82 104806 0.37 0.10 1.43
1984 2.75 2.03 3.72 128062 0.43 0.11 1.68
1985 2.00 1.47 2.72 124489 0.42 0.11 1.64
1986 1.32 0.97 1.78 65323 0.34 0.09 1.32
1987 1.14 0.84 1.54 43367 0.34 0.09 1.32
1988 1.30 0.96 1.75 48689 0.37 0.09 1.43
1989 1.53 1.13 2.07 62748 0.42 0.11 1.63
1990 1.67 1.23 2.27 81164 0.43 0.11 1.67
1991 1.87 1.38 2.54 75253 0.34 0.09 1.31
1992 2.12 1.56 2.87 68622 0.27 0.07 1.07
1993 1.96 1.44 2.66 55866 0.18 0.05 0.70
1994 1.62 1.20 2.19 28333 0.13 0.03 0.52
1995 1.65 1.22 2.23 25220 0.16 0.04 0.60
1996 1.85 1.37 2.50 34512 0.17 0.04 0.65
1997 2.01 1.49 2.72 35735 0.18 0.05 0.72
1998 2.26 1.67 3.04 55790 0.26 0.07 1.00
1999 2.17 1.61 2.94 75670 0.34 0.09 1.32
2000 1.96 1.45 2.66 80697 0.30 0.08 1.18
2001 1.96 1.44 2.65 57285 0.27 0.07 1.05
2002 1.82 1.34 2.46 61488 0.24 0.06 0.94
2003 1.66 1.23 2.24 39225 0.21 0.05 0.81
2004 1.80 1.33 2.43 42734 0.22 0.06 0.85
2005 2.09 1.55 2.82 42618 0.15 0.04 0.58
2006 2.22 1.64 2.99 29627 0.11 0.03 0.44
2007 2.27 1.68 3.06 29930 0.11 0.03 0.44
2008 2.20 1.63 2.96 28188 0.11 0.03 0.43
2009 2.13 1.58 2.88 27273 0.11 0.03 0.41
2010 2.00 1.48 2.69 25195 0.12 0.03 0.47
2011 1.76 1.30 2.38 30226 0.14 0.04 0.56
2012 1.45 1.07 1.96 24763 0.13 0.03 0.52
2013 1.24 0.92 1.68 19248 0.13 0.03 0.53
2014 1.23 0.91 1.66 20964 0.19 0.05 0.74
2015 1.22 0.90 1.66 34022 0.25 0.06 0.99
2016 1.17 0.87 1.59 30749 0.21 0.05 0.84
2017 1.27 0.94 1.72 30442 0.27 0.07 1.04
2018 1.41 1.04 1.91 56341 0.43 0.11 1.70
2019 1.30 0.96 1.77 73582 0.47 0.12 1.84
2020 1.17 0.86 1.58 58380 0.41 0.11 1.62
2021 1.41 1.04 1.90 55642 0.37 0.09 1.42
2022 1.60 1.18 2.16 63970 0.39 0.10 1.51
2023 1.58 1.14 2.20 * 78643 * 0.44 * 0.11 * 1.81
2024 1.58 1.02 2.45        
Table 8: Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Assessment summary. Biomass is relative to BMSY at the end of the year and fishing mortality relative to FMSY. High and low values are the 95% confidence intervals. Catches are in tonnes. Catches for 2023 were estimated based on reported catches up to November.

* Based on estimated catches for the year.

12 - Sources and references

ICES. 2013. Report of the Working Group on Methods of Fish Stock Assessments (WGMG). Edited by ICES Document CM 2013/SSGSUE: 09130 pp.

ICES. 2022. Benchmark workshop on Pandalus stocks (WKPRAWN). Edited by C. Lordan, and J. Lövgren. 10.17895/ices.pub.19714204.v1

IMR-PINRO. 2023. Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea shrimp in 2023. Edited by C. Hvingel and F. Zimmermann. IMR-PINRO 2023-2. https://www.hi.no/hi/nettrapporter/imr-pinro-2023-2

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