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Advice on fishing opportunities for beaked redfish in 2025 and 2026 in ICES subareas 1 and 2

Author(s): Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG)

Report series: IMR-PINRO 2024-4 Published: 21.06.2024
Subject: Uerfamilien
Approved by: Research Director(s): Geir Huse Program leader(s): Bjørn Erik Axelsen

Stock Name: Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic)

 

Advice on fishing opportunities

The Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2025 should be no more than 67 191 tonnes, and catches in 2026 should be no more than 69 177 tonnes.

Stock development over time

Fishing pressure on the stock is below FMSY19+ and spawning-stock biomass is above Bpa and Blim.

standard assessment graph
Figure 1. Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Catch, recruitment, F, SSB and TSB (total stock biomass, age 2+) with 95% confidence levels. The biomass reference points relate to SSB.

 

Catch scenarios

Variable Value Notes
Fages19+ (2024) 0.077 Fsq =F2023. From assessment .
SSB (2025) 1 094 860 Short-term forecast.
R age  2 (2024-2026) N/A Recruits in the intermediate year do not enter the fishery or the SSB in the forecast.
Total catch (2024) 64 029 Short-term forecast.
Table 1. Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast. SSB and total catch in tonnes.
Basis Total catch (2025) Fages19+ (2025) SSB (2026) % SSB change* % TAC change** % Advice change***
Advice basis
F2025 = F2024 67 191 0.077 1 105 628 5.4 -4.2 -4.2
Other scenarios 
F = 0 0 0 1 168 451 11 -100 -100
Table 2a. Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Annual catch scenarios for 2025. All weights are in tonnes.

*SSB 2026 relative to SSB 2023 (1 048 817 tonnes)

**Catch in 2025 relative to TAC set by Norway and Russia for 2024 (70 164 tonnes)

***Advice value for 2025 relative to the advice value for 2024

Basis Total catch (2026) Fages19+ (2026) SSB (2027) % SSB change* % Advice change**
Advice basis
F2026 = F2025 69 177 0.077 1 117 585 6.6 3.0
Other scenarios
F = 0*** 0 0 1 246 693 19 -100
Table 2b. Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Annual catch scenarios for 2026. All weights are in tonnes.

*SSB 2027 relative to SSB 2023 (1 048 817 tonnes)

**Advice value for 2026 relative to the advice value for 2025

***F=0 in 2025 and 2026

The advice for 2025 is 0.6% higher than the advice for 2023 due to increasing stock size and status quo advice, but 4.4% lower than the advice for 2024.

Basis of the advice

Advice basis Status quo F.
Management plan There is no agreed management plan for this stock. Long-term management plan options have been evaluated by ICES (ICES, 2018a).
Table 3. Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). The basis of the advice.

Quality of the assessment

The stock was benchmarked in 2018. The choice of a scaling coefficient for the Norwegian–Russian ecosystem survey is a source of potential bias, but the advice is robust to this uncertainty.

Data from the pelagic survey in the Norwegian Sea (WGIDEEPS) was reviewed in the recent benchmark assessment and the survey is now included in the assessment model as age compositions. However, the survey series still does not appropriately cover the geographical distribution of the adult population.

Age determination is lacking for some surveys and catches in recent years. To account for the lack of catch-at-age data in some years a procedure using length distribution and a time-averaged age-length key was applied.

To smooth out spurious variations in SSB, caused by limited sample size in the weight-at-age of the 19+ group, a fixed weight-at-age function (i.e. common across years) was adopted for the assessment model during the Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG) meeting in 2018 (ICES 2018b). In the 2024 assessment the maturity ogive was changed to fixed across time in a similar manner.

 

retrospective plots
Figure 2. Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Historical assessment results. There was a benchmark revision in 2018.

 

The SSB development over time is smoother than in previous assessments due to the change to a time-invariant maturity ogive. The upward revision of SSB in the 2024 assessment was driven by the addition of data from the 2022 WGIDEEPS survey, which is carried out every three years.

Issues relevant for the advice

Due to the suspension of Russian scientists from ICES, the assessment was conducted by a Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) consisting of scientists from VNIRO (Russia) and IMR (Norway) (Howell et al., 202 4 ).

This advice has been conducted outside ICES and should not be considered as ICES advice. However, the assessment has been conducted following the previous procedures and based on the methodology agreed at the ICES benchmark in 2018 (ICES, 2018c).

There has been a significant change in the selectivity in the fisheries, with the fraction of the catch in the 19+ age class increasing in recent years (since 2017). Any evaluation of a FMSY or Fpa value is conditional on the Fbar and selectivities used in the evaluation. As a result of the changing selectivity, applying the same target Fbar will result in a reduction of the catch as a fraction of the fishable stock. Given that the catch is close to advice, and the SSB is relatively stable, we therefore propose F19+ status quo as an approximation to maintain the same overall fraction of the stock being caught. We note that this stock is due for a method revision in 2026 prior to the next release of advice, and the advice basis should be revised at that time.

Long-term management plan options have been proposed by Norway and Russia and evaluated by ICES (ICES, 2018a). In the absence of an agreed management plan, the MSY approach is used. The advice has been based on F19+ = 0.077. The highest fishing mortality of those tested during the MSE evaluations (ICES, 2018a) that was found to be precautionary is 0.06. The present advice is above F19+ = 0.06.

Bycatch of the endangered golden redfish ( Sebastes norvegicus ) should be kept at a minimum to allow for rebuilding of that stock.

Reference points

Framework Reference point Value Technical basis Source
MSY approach MSY Btrigger 315 000 t Bpa ICES (2018a)
FMSY 0.084 F0,1 ICES (2018a)
Precautionary approach  Blim 227 000 t B oss (SSB in 1992) ICES (2018a)
Bpa 315 000 t Blim * e (1.645 x 0.2) ICES (2018a)
Flim - - -
Fpa - - -
Management plan SSBmgt - - -
Fmgt - - -
Table 4. Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Reference points, values, and their technical basis.

Basis of the assessment

ICES stock data category 1
Assessment type Statistical catch-at-age model .
Input data Commercial catches: international landings (tonnes), age frequencies and weight-at-age from catch sampling of the pelagic and demersal fisheries and from the survey; survey indices: numbers-at-age from BS-NoRu-Q1-Btr, Eco-NoRu-Q3-Btr, Ru-Q4-Btr; proportion-at-age from deep pelagic ecosystem survey ; maturity data from BS-NoRu-Q1-Btr, Eco-NoRu-Q3-Btr, and commercial catch sampling; natural mortalities were fixed at 0.05.
Discards and bycatch Discarding and bycatch are assumed negligible.
Other information Last benchmark was in January 2018 (WKREDFISH; ICES, 2018c). Proposed management plans were evaluated in 2018 (WKREBMSE; ICES, 2018a). The JRN-AFWG 2024 changed maturity ogive from time-varying to time-invariant. A method revision is planned for 2026.
Working group Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) .
Table 5. Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Basis of the assessment and advice.

History of the advice, catch, and management

Year ICES advice Predicted catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC ICES catches
1987 Precautionary TAC 70 000* 85 000 35 000
1988 F = F0.1; TAC 11 000 - 41 000
1989 Status quo F; TAC 12 000 - 47 000
1990 Status quo F; TAC 18 000 - 63 000
1991 F at Fmed; TAC 12 000 - 68 000
1992 If required, precautionary TAC 22 000 - 15 590
1993 If required, precautionary TAC 18 000 18 000 12 814
1994 If required, precautionary TAC - - 12 721
1995 Lowest possible F - - 10 284
1996 Catch at lowest possible level - - 8 075
1997 Catch at lowest possible level - - 8 598
1998 No directed fishery, reduce bycatch - - 14 04 4
1999 No directed fishery, reduce bycatch - - 11 209
2000 No directed fishery, bycatch at lowest possible level - - 10 075
2001 No directed fishery, bycatch at lowest possible level - - 18 418
2002 No directed fishery, bycatch at lowest possible level - - 6 99 4
2003 No directed fishery, bycatch at lowest possible level - - 2 520
2004 No directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - - 5 493**
2005 No directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - - 8 46 6 **
2006 No directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - - 33 261**
2007 No directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - 15 500^ 20 21 8 **
2008 Protection of juveniles, no directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - 14 500^ 13 09 6 **
2009 Protection of juveniles, no directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - 10 500^ 10 246**
2010 Protection of juveniles, no directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - 8 600^ 11 924**
2011 Protection of juveniles, no directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - 7 900^ 12 962**
2012 Protection of juveniles, no directed fishery and low bycatch limits - 7 500^ 11 059**
2013 F0.1 < 47 000 19 500^ 9 389 **
2014 Status quo catch < 24 000 36 800^^ 18 427 **
2015 Precautionary approach < 30 000 30 000# 25 570
2016 Precautionary approach < 30 000 30 000# 34 754
2017 Precautionary approach < 30 000 30 000# 30 782
2018 Precautionary approach < 32 658 32 658# 38 046
2019 Precautionary approach < 53 757 53 757# 45 640
2020 Precautionary approach < 55 860 55 860# 53 657
2021 Precautionary approach < 66 158 66 158# 63 479^^^
2022 Precautionary approach < 67 210 67 210# 62 194^^^
2023 Status quo F < 66 779^^^ 66 779 # 60 466^^^
2024 Status quo F < 70 164^^^ 70 164 #  
2025 S tatus quo F < 67 191^^^    
2026 Status quo F < 69 177^^^    
Table 6. Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). ICES advice, agreed TACs, and ICES catches. All weights are in tonnes.  

* Includes both Sebastes mentella and S. norvegicus .  

** Includes the pelagic catches in the Norwegian Sea outside the EEZ.  

^ TAC set by the North-East Atlantic Fisheries Commission (NEAFC) for an Olympic fishery in international waters.  

^^ Sum of TAC set by NEAFC in international waters and by Norway in the Norwegian Economic Zone.  

^^^ In 2022 and 2024 the assessments and advice were carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches for 2021-2023, and gave advice for 2023-2026.  

# TAC set jointly by Norway and Russia .  

History of catch and landings

Table 7. Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Catches inside and outside the NEAFC Regulatory Area (RA) as estimated by JRN-AFWG.
Year   Inside the NEAFC RA    (tonnes)   Outside the NEAFC RA (tonnes)   Total catches     (tonnes)   Proportion inside the NEAFC RA (%) 
2019 6 060 39 580 45 640 13.3%
2020 5 469 48 188 53 657 10.2%
2021 2 872 60 607 63 479 4.5%
2022 2 680 59 514 62 194 4.3%
2023 5 60 461 60 466 0.01%
Year Faroe Islands France Germany Greenland Latvia Lithuania Norway Portugal Russia Spain UK** Others Total
1992 23 12 0 0 0 0 10 751 972 3 577 14 241 0 15 590
1993 13 50 35 1 0 0 5 182 963 6 260 5 293 12 12 814
1994 4 74 18 1 0 0 6 511 895 5 021 30 136 31 12 721
1995 3 16 176 2 0 0 2 646 927 6 346 67 97 4 10 284
1996 4 75 119 3 0 0 6 053 467 925 328 99 2 8 075
1997 4 37 81 16 0 0 4 657 474 2 972 272 78 7 8 598
1998 20 73 100 14 0 0 9 733 125 3 646 177 134 22 14 044
1999 73 26 202 50 0 0 7 884 65 2 731 29 140 9 11 209
2000 50 12 62 29 0 0 6 020 115 3 519 87 130 51 10 075
2001 74 16 198 17 0 0 13 937 179 3 775 90 120 12 18 418
2002 75 58 99 18 0 0 2 152 242 3 904 190 188 68 6 994
2003 64 22 32 8 0 0 1 210 44 952 47 124 17 2 520
2004 588 13 10 4 0 0 1 375 235 2 879 257 76 56 5 493
2005 1 147 46 33 39 0 0 1 760 140 5 023 163 95 20 8 466
2006 3 808 215 2 483 63 341 845 4 710 1 804 11 413 710 1 027 5 842 33 261
2007 2 197 234 520 29 349 785 3 209 1 483 5 660 2 181 202 3 369 20 218
2008 1 849 187 16 25 267 117 2 220 713 7 117 463 83 39 13 096
2009 1 343 15 42 0 0 0 2 677 806 3 843 177 80 1 263 10 246
2010 979 175 21 12 243 457 2 065 293 6 414 1 184 79 2 11 924
2011 984 175 835 0 536 565 2 471 613 5 037 1 678 55 13 12 962
2012 259 0 517 0 447 449 2 114 1 038 4 101 1 780 0 354 11 059
2013 697 0 80 21 280 262 1 750 1 078 3 677 1 459 0 85 9 389
2014 743 215 446 15 215 167 13 149 505 1 704 1 162 0 106 18 427
2015 657 49 242 48 537 192 19 433 678 1 142 2 529 52 11 25 570
2016 502 134 493 74 1 243 1 065 18 191 1 066 8 419 3 213 122 232 34 754
2017 443 45 763 66 562 790 17 077 1 060 6 593 2 838 436 109 30 782
2018 425 67 2 473 82 1 020 1 010 18 594 699 10 497 2 457 63 659 38 046
2019 156 370 1 599 615 0 653 23 844 1 422 13 444 2 222 590 725 45 640
2020 149 163 1 807 67 0 1 081 32 950 889 13 874 744 437 1 496 53 657
2021 290 218 1 166 85 0 1 379 43 794 381 14 887 615 655 9 63 479
2022* 235 221 1 758 39 0 990 40 715 464 16 717 278 114 663 62 194
2023* 185 133 626 109 0 1 44 496 369 13 976 295 231 45 60 466
Table 8. Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). History of commercial landings by country. All weights are in tonnes.  

* Provisional figures.  

** Includes UK (E&W) since 2000  

Summary of the assessment

Table 9. Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assessment summary. High and low refer to 95% confidence bounds.
Year Recruitment Spawning stock biomass Total Fishable Catches Fishing mortality
Recruitment age 2 High 95% L ow 95% SSB High 95% Low 95% Biomass ages 2+ Biomass ages 6+ F ages 19+ High 95% Low 95%
thousands tonnes
1992 452952 573974 357448 345186 454535 262143 611717 569423 15590 0.039 0.054 0.028
1993 302438 380255 240546 366134 478330 280254 661913 608242 12814 0.029 0.039 0.021
1994 219712 276166 174798 391405 507665 301770 724329 671143 12721 0.026 0.034 0.019
1995 210082 263083 167760 420420 541526 326398 793907 745630 10284 0.019 0.025 0.014
1996 167147 209252 133514 456061 582601 357005 863999 830471 8075 0.013 0.017 0.010
1997 116283 145397 92999 499137 631316 394632 932291 906693 8598 0.013 0.016 0.010
1998 60351 75804 48049 547527 685386 437397 995129 972177 14045 0.018 0.022 0.014
1999 48801 61307 38846 602508 747417 485694 1046555 1029056 11209 0.013 0.017 0.011
2000 38510 48228 30751 661882 813902 538256 1090085 1078258 10075 0.011 0.013 0.009
2001 36793 46776 28940 727746 888212 596270 1126266 1119514 18418 0.019 0.023 0.015
2002 44125 56048 34738 780517 948395 642355 1142259 1136681 6993 0.007 0.008 0.006
2003 47619 60647 37389 834606 1008909 690416 1159605 1154819 2520 0.002 0.003 0.002
2004 64325 81305 50891 885348 1065126 735913 1173472 1168542 5493 0.005 0.006 0.004
2005 125351 157508 99760 929475 1114407 775232 1180159 1174025 8465 0.008 0.010 0.006
2006 236264 296565 188225 968449 1158617 809494 1182895 1174795 33261 0.038 0.051 0.029
2007 336307 426212 265366 982667 1178842 819139 1162513 1150498 20219 0.022 0.030 0.017
2008 391976 501109 306611 997597 1197665 830950 1156442 1135734 13096 0.017 0.022 0.013
2009 379212 489200 293953 1005386 1206884 837530 1159965 1127354 10246 0.011 0.016 0.008
2010 497618 651235 380238 998700 1198215 832406 1171314 1128711 11924 0.012 0.017 0.009
2011 626739 833536 471248 981447 1177212 818237 1190010 1140923 12962 0.014 0.019 0.010
2012 514641 693022 382174 962631 1154401 802718 1217414 1165806 11059 0.012 0.017 0.009
2013 276468 382870 199636 945419 1132922 788948 1260022 1198241 9389 0.011 0.016 0.007
2014 285439 402696 202325 933193 1116637 779886 1319256 1251947 18426 0.021 0.035 0.013
2015 240181 358801 160776 919537 1099781 768833 1373404 1320734 25570 0.030 0.041 0.022
2016 251114 412847 152740 912156 1090798 762771 1415521 1383052 34754 0.041 0.056 0.031
2017 305167 527032 176701 910447 1089312 760952 1450210 1417486 30783 0.039 0.054 0.029
2018 329305 626301 173147 926703 1107845 775179 1487605 1457585 38046 0.049 0.070 0.036
2019 302303 650475 140493 950401 1136225 794968 1517065 1484750 45640 0.059 0.079 0.045
2020 248567 662240 93298 978366 1171157 817312 1540450 1503687 53656 0.074 0.101 0.055
2021 242187 840141 69815 1003603 1205298 835660 1556718 1519207 63479 0.085 0.115 0.063
2022 235979 1030110 54058 1024549 1236651 848825 1562770 1529199 62196 0.082 0.114 0.059
2023 229938* 1237841 42713 1048817 1272835 864224 1568484 1524679 60466 0.077 0.110 0.054

*Predicted value based on regression between survey indices and recruitment time series .  

References

Howell et al. 2024. Report of the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG). IMR PINRO 2024-7. https://www.hi.no/hi/nettrapporter/imr-pinro-en-2024-7

ICES. 2016. Advice basis.   In   Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2016. ICES Advice 2016, Book 1, Section 1.2.

ICES. 2018a. Workshop on the evaluation of harvest control rules for  Sebastes mentella   in ICES areas 1 and 2 (WKREBMSE). June –August 2018, by correspondence. ICES CM 2018/ACOM:52.

ICES. 2018b. Report of the Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG), 18–24 April 2018, JRC, Ispra, Italy. ICES CM 2018/ACOM:06, 857 pp.

ICES. 2018c. Report of the Benchmark Workshop on Redfish Stocks (WKREDFISH). 29 January –2 February 2018, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2018/ACOM:34, 174 pp.

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