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Advice on fishing opportunities for northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) in the Barents Sea (ICES subareas 1 and 2)

Report series: IMR-PINRO 2024-14 Published: 14.11.2024
Research group(s): Bentiske ressurser og prosesser Subject: Reke – Barentshavet Program: Barentshavet og Polhavet
Research group leader(s): Erik Berg (Bentiske ressurser og prosesser)
Approved by: Research Director(s): Geir Huse Program leader(s): Maria Fossheim

Advice on fishing opportunities

The Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches of northern shrimp in the Barents Sea in 2025 should not exceed 150 000 tonnes.

Stock development over time

Exploitable stock biomass has remained above MSY Btrigger and Blim throughout the entire time series. Fishing pressure on the stock has been estimated below FMSY and Flim, with a low probability of exceeding FMSY in 2024.

 

Stock assessment summary of northern shrimp in subareas 1 and 2. Top: total catches (the final, lighter coloured bar depicts preliminary estimation). Bottom: fishing mortality (orange) and exploited biomass (green) at the beginning of the year, relative to FMSY and BMSY, respectively, with orange and green lines showing estimated means and shaded areas 95% confidence intervals. Blue and dashed horizontal lines, respectively, indicate the MSY and precautionary approach reference points.
Figure 1: Stock assessment summary of northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Top: total catches (the final, lighter coloured bar depicts preliminary estimation of 2024 catches). Bottom: fishing mortality (orange) and exploited biomass (green) at the beginning of the year, relative to FMSY and BMSY, respectively, with orange and green lines showing estimated means and shaded areas 95% confidence intervals. Blue and dashed horizontal lines, respectively, indicate the MSY and precautionary approach reference points.

 

Catch scenarios

Variable Value Notes
F2024/FMSY 0.39 Corresponds to the predicted catch in 2024
B2025/BMSY 1.72 Short-term forecast (STF)
Catch 2024 83 Based on preliminary catch data (Norway and Russia) + average catches from other fleets in 2021-2023
Table 1: Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. The basis for the catch advice and scenarios.
Scenario Catch B2026/BMSY F2025/FMSY % risk of B2026 < MSY Btrigger % risk of F2025 > FMSY % risk of F2025 > Flim
MSY approach* 150 1.60 0.72 <0.1 30 8.6
F2025 = FMSY 203 1.53 1.00 <0.1 50 20
F2025 = F2024 82 1.69 0.38 <0.1 6.4 0.89
F2025 = 0 0 1.81 0.00 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1
*Using the fractile rule with 35th percentiles of F/FMSY and B/BMSY distributions and the catch distribution under F=FMSY
Table 2: Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Annual catch scenarios for 2025. Catches are in thousand tonnes, exploitable biomass and fishing mortality are relative values, and risks are in percentages.

Basis of the advice

Advice basis Precautionary MSY approach using 35th percentiles of fishing mortality, exploitable biomass and catch.
Management plan No agreed precautionary management plan for northern shrimp in this area.
Table 3: Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. The basis of the advice.

Quality of assessment

In the 2024 assessment, the issue of negligible weight of the survey indices (ICES, 2022) on the stock estimates was addressed by incorporating the estimated uncertainty of the stock indices as observation error priors. This caused the stock trends to follow the survey indices more closely, resulting in shifted and slightly less pronounced fluctuations compared to previous assessments (Figure 2). However, compared to previous assessments the change did not affect the perception of the state of the stock or catch advice. The strong dependency on the commercial CPUE index was considered a major remaining issue after the benchmark. This year’s revised assessment is therefore considered an improvement that likely reflects the development of the stock better by linking it more closely to the ecosystem survey in the Barents Sea that covers the entire stock area.

 

Historical assessment results for northern shrimp in subareas 1 and 2. Compared are estimated trends of F/FMSY and B/BMSY as estimated in the past stock assessments in 2019 to 2023 (black lines show estimated mean) with the current assessment (blue lines and shaded areas show estimated mean and 95% confidence intervals, respectively).
Figure 2: Historical assessment results for northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Trends of F/FMSY and B/BMSY as estimated in the past stock assessments in 2019 to 2023 (black lines show estimated mean) are compared with the current assessment (blue lines and shaded areas show estimated mean and 95% confidence intervals, respectively).

 

Issues relevant for the advice

A precautionary MSY approach recommended by ICES (Berg et al., 2021) for SPiCT assessments (Pedersen and Berg, 2017) was applied to account for the uncertainty in estimates. Fishing mortality at median FMSY would imply a catch advice of 203 000 t in 2025, far above historic catches. Considering that MSY is much higher than observed catches, it is very uncertain how the stock would respond to such an increase in catches. This was addressed previously by using the mode of FMSY distribution instead of the mean, resulting in a similarly precautionary reduction of catch advice as the precautionary MSY approach implemented this year. Harvest control rules were recommended for the stock in 2024 and could replace the current MSY approach if adopted as the management plan (Trochta et al., 2024).

Conflicting trends between the survey and commercial CPUE indices for part of the time series may indicate that the standardization of the commercial CPUE index does not account sufficiently well for the spatial contraction of the fishery over the past two decades. Further investigations should also include the potential utility of the demersal fish survey in winter as an information source.

Sensitivity analysis showed that the priors have little impact on the perception of stock state and advice. However, the current configuration with informative priors results in some sensitivity to the underlying assumptions, especially on carrying capacity. The validity of these assumptions should be re-evaluated regularly. More contrast in the input time series might help to decrease the dependency on priors in the future.

Surplus production models assess only the exploitable biomass and therefore lack information on recruitment and other drivers of stock fluctuations. Information on size composition of the stock could provide an auxiliary indicator of the state of the stock.

Reference points

Framework Reference points Value* Technical basis
MSY approach MSY Btrigger B/BMSY = 0.5 Relative value from the SPiCT model. Reference points are estimated directly from the SPiCT assessment model and change when the assessment is updated.
FMSY F/FMSY = 1
Precautionary approach Blim B/BMSY = 0.3
Flim F/FMSY = 1.7
*No reference points are defined for this stock in terms of absolute values. The SPiCT-estimated values of the ratios F/FMSY and B/BMSY are used to estimate stock status relative to the MSY reference points.
Table 4: Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Reference points, values, and their technical basis.

Basis of the assessment

Table 5: Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. The basis of the advice.
Assessment type Surplus production in continuous time (SPiCT)
Input data Fishery catches (1970—2024). Two survey indices: the combined Norwegian and Russian shrimp surveys (1984—2002) and the Norwegian/Russian ecosystem survey (2004—2024); one fishery-based index (standardized CPUE from Norwegian logbooks) (1980—2024).
Discards and bycatch Discarding is considered to be negligible.
Indicators Standardized CPUE index from the Russian fleet.
Other information None
Working group Joint Russian-Norwegian Artic Fisheries Working Group

History of the advice, catch, and management

Year Advice Catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC Total catch
2005 No increase compared to 2004 43600 - 42618
2006 No increase in catch above recent level 40000 - 29627
2007 Catch that will prevent exceeding Flim in the long term 50000 - 29931
2008 Catch that will prevent exceeding Flim in the long term 50000 - 28188
2009 Catch that will prevent exceeding Flim in the long term 50000 - 27272
2010 Catch that will prevent exceeding Flim in the long term 50000 - 25198
2011 Catch that will prevent exceeding FMSY in the long term 60000 - 30226
2012 Catch that will prevent exceeding FMSY in the long term 60000 - 24756
2013 Catch that will maintain stock at current high biomass 60000 - 19249
2014 No new advice, same as for 2013 60000 - 20964
2015 Move exploitation towards FMSY < 70000 - 34022
2016 Move exploitation towards FMSY < 70000 - 30749
2017 Move exploitation towards FMSY ≤ 70000 - 30442
2018 Move exploitation towards FMSY ≤ 70000 - 56341
2019 Move exploitation towards FMSY ≤ 70000 - 73582
2020 MSY approach: mode of the FMSY distribution as basis of advice ≤ 150000 - 58380
2021 MSY approach: mode of the FMSY distribution as basis of advice ≤ 140000 - 55642
2022 MSY approach: mode of the FMSY distribution as basis of advice ≤ 140000 - 59580
2023 MSY approach: mode of the FMSY distribution as basis of advice* ≤156000 - 72647
2024 MSY approach: mode of the FMSY distribution as basis of advice* ≤143000 -  
2025 MSY approach: 35th fracticles of B/BMSY, F/FMSY and catch distributions as basis of advice** ≤150000    
Table 6: Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. ICES advice and official landings. All weights are in tonnes. Assessment and advice were carried out by the NAFO-ICES Pandalus Assessmen Group (NIPAG) until 2021, by the Joint Russian-Norwegian shrimp working group in 2022 and 2023, and by Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JNR-AFWG) in 2024.

*In 2022-2023 assessment and advice were provided by the Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on shrimp.

**In 2024 assessment and advice were provided by the Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG).

History of the catch and landings

Year Norway Russia EU Greenland Faroes Iceland United Kingdom Others/unknown
1970 5508             0
1971 5116             26
1972 6772             0
1973 6921             0
1974 8008             0
1975 8197             2
1976 9752             0
1977 14700             4854
1978 20484 18270           189
1979 25435 10474           390
1980 35061 11219           0
1981 32713 9886           1011
1982 43451 15552           3835
1983 70798 29105           4903
1984 76636 43180           8246
1985 82123 32104           10262
1986 48569 10216           6538
1987 31353 6690           5324
1988 32021 12320           4348
1989 47064 12252           3432
1990 54182 20295           6687
1991 39663 29434           6156
1992 39657 20944           8021
1993 32663 22397           806
1994 20162 7108           1063
1995 19337 3564           2319
1996 25445 5747           3320
1997 29079 1493           5163
1998 44792 4895           6103
1999 52612 10765           12293
2000 55333 19596           5768
2001 43031 5846 0 0 0 0 0 8408
2002 48799 3790 0 0 0 0 0 8899
2003 34172 2776 0 0 0 0 0 2277
2004 35918 2410 0 0 0 0 0 4406
2005 37253 435 0 0 0 0 0 4930
2006 27352 4 1365 0 906 0 0  
2007 25558 192 1729 0 2451 0 0  
2008 20662 417 2207 0 4902 0 0  
2009 19784 0 4903 0 2586 0 0  
2010 16776 0 6309 0 2110 0 0  
2011 19928 0 5292 0 4432 574 0  
2012 14159 5 5073 0 4205 41 1280  
2013 8846 1067 5416 95 3660 164 0  
2014 10234 741 5667 149 4171 2 0  
2015 16618 1151 8665 2774 4665 148 0  
2016 10898 2491 9275 2821 4920 344 0  
2017 7010 3849 11406 3487 4689 0 0  
2018 23126 12561 13394 803 5173 0 1283  
2019 23925 28081 15342 1566 4325 0 344  
2020 19116 21265 14489 633 2750 0 128  
2021 30177 12379 10638 0 2311 0 136  
2022 35290 3809 17662 0 2819 0 0  
2023 34764 12288 23179 0 2416 0 0  
Table 7: Total catches of northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2 by country. Catches for the final year are based on preliminary information. Country-specific information only available from 2006 (except for Norway and Russia). All values are in tonnes.

Summary of the assessment

  Relative exploitable biomass     Relative fishing pressure
Year B/BMSY (low) B/BMSY B/BMSY (high) Catch Predicted catch F/FMSY (low) F/FMSY F/FMSY (high)
1970 0.88 1.43 2.32 6 5 0.01 0.03 0.09
1971 0.96 1.51 2.38 5 6 0.01 0.03 0.09
1972 1.04 1.60 2.46 7 6 0.01 0.03 0.10
1973 1.11 1.67 2.52 7 7 0.01 0.03 0.11
1974 1.15 1.71 2.53 8 8 0.01 0.04 0.11
1975 1.18 1.72 2.50 8 9 0.01 0.04 0.12
1976 1.20 1.72 2.47 10 11 0.02 0.05 0.15
1977 1.32 1.85 2.58 20 19 0.03 0.08 0.24
1978 1.51 2.07 2.83 39 33 0.04 0.12 0.37
1979 1.59 2.13 2.87 36 38 0.05 0.14 0.43
1980 1.61 2.11 2.75 46 43 0.05 0.16 0.49
1981 1.67 2.15 2.76 44 48 0.06 0.18 0.54
1982 1.73 2.23 2.86 63 65 0.07 0.23 0.69
1983 1.84 2.36 3.04 105 97 0.10 0.32 0.97
1984 1.90 2.46 3.20 128 121 0.13 0.40 1.25
1985 1.74 2.28 2.98 124 110 0.13 0.43 1.38
1986 1.32 1.74 2.28 65 69 0.11 0.36 1.17
1987 1.00 1.32 1.73 43 48 0.10 0.31 1.01
1988 0.91 1.20 1.57 49 49 0.10 0.32 1.01
1989 1.00 1.31 1.71 63 62 0.11 0.34 1.07
1990 1.21 1.58 2.07 81 74 0.11 0.35 1.10
1991 1.38 1.82 2.40 75 74 0.10 0.31 0.99
1992 1.51 1.98 2.61 69 67 0.08 0.27 0.85
1993 1.53 2.01 2.63 56 52 0.07 0.21 0.68
1994 1.38 1.80 2.35 28 33 0.05 0.16 0.50
1995 1.17 1.53 1.99 25 27 0.05 0.15 0.46
1996 1.18 1.54 2.01 35 33 0.05 0.16 0.50
1997 1.34 1.73 2.25 36 39 0.06 0.17 0.54
1998 1.50 1.94 2.52 56 55 0.07 0.22 0.67
1999 1.62 2.10 2.71 76 73 0.09 0.27 0.85
2000 1.65 2.14 2.78 81 77 0.10 0.30 0.94
2001 1.49 1.93 2.52 57 60 0.08 0.26 0.80
2002 1.41 1.84 2.40 61 58 0.08 0.25 0.79
2003 1.33 1.74 2.28 39 42 0.07 0.21 0.64
2004 1.18 1.55 2.03 43 41 0.07 0.22 0.69
2005 1.17 1.52 1.98 43 41 0.06 0.20 0.63
2006 1.30 1.68 2.16 30 31 0.04 0.14 0.43
2007 1.48 1.89 2.42 30 30 0.04 0.12 0.39
2008 1.49 1.90 2.44 28 28 0.04 0.12 0.37
2009 1.47 1.89 2.43 27 27 0.04 0.11 0.35
2010 1.52 1.94 2.49 25 26 0.03 0.10 0.32
2011 1.60 2.06 2.65 30 29 0.04 0.11 0.36
2012 1.51 1.96 2.54 25 25 0.03 0.10 0.33
2013 1.37 1.81 2.39 19 20 0.03 0.09 0.30
2014 1.22 1.61 2.13 21 22 0.04 0.12 0.37
2015 1.13 1.47 1.91 34 32 0.06 0.17 0.54
2016 1.13 1.46 1.89 31 31 0.06 0.17 0.54
2017 1.10 1.43 1.84 30 32 0.05 0.17 0.53
2018 1.28 1.66 2.15 56 55 0.08 0.25 0.77
2019 1.40 1.84 2.41 74 71 0.10 0.31 0.98
2020 1.33 1.73 2.26 58 59 0.10 0.30 0.95
2021 1.15 1.48 1.90 56 56 0.09 0.29 0.91
2022 1.24 1.60 2.06 60 61 0.09 0.29 0.91
2023 1.32 1.70 2.19 73 72 0.11 0.33 1.03
2024 1.37 1.77 2.29 83 82 0.12 0.37 1.19
2025 1.27 1.72 2.33          
Table 8: Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Estimated exploitable biomass, catch and fishing mortality over time. Exploitable biomass and fishing mortality are relativ to BMSY and FMSY, with 95% confidence intervals (low and high values). Predicted catches are mean estimates of catches in the stock assessment model. Catches for the final  year are based on preliminary information.

Sources and references

Berg, C., Coleman, P., Cooper, A., Hansen, H. Ø., Haslob, H., Herrariz, I. G., Kokkalis, A., et al. 2021. Benchmark workshop on the development of MSY advice for category 3 stocks using surplus production model in continuous time; SPiCT (WKMSYSPiCT).

ICES. 2022. Benchmark workshop on pandalus stocks (WKPRAWN). Report. ICES Scientific Reports. https://ices-library.figshare.com/articles/report/Benchmark_workshop_on_Pandalus_stocks_WKPRAWN_/19714204.

Pedersen, M. W., and Berg, C. W. 2017. A stochastic surplus production model in continuous time. Fish and Fisheries, 18: 226–243. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/faf.12174.

Trochta, J. T., Stekso, A., Olssøn, R., Danielsen, H. E., Jenssen, M., and Zimmermann, F. 2024. Management strategy evaluation for northern shrimp in the Barents Sea (ICES subareas 1 and 2). IMR-PINRO report series.