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Advice on fishing opportunities for beaked redfish in 2023 and 2024 in ICES subareas 1 and 2

Author(s): Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG)

Stock Name: Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic)

 

Advice on fishing opportunities

The ad hoc Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) advises that when the status quo approach is applied, catches in 2023 should be no more than 66 779 tonnes, and catches in 2024 should be no more than 70 164 tonnes.

Stock development over time

Fishing pressure on the stock is above FMSY19+ and spawning-stock size is above Bpa and Blim.

Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Catch, recruitment, F, SSB and TSB (total stock biomass, age 2+) with 95 % confidence levels. The biomass reference points relate to SSB.
Figure 1 Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Catch, recruitment, F, SSB and TSB (total stock biomass, age 2+) with 95 % confidence levels. The biomass reference points relate to SSB.

Catch scenarios

Variable Value Notes
Fages19+ (2022) 0.097 Fsq =F2021 . From assessment
SSB (2023) 1 018 117 Short-term forecast
Rage 2 (2022) 307 756 Regression surveys vs. recruitment
Rage 2 (2023) 328 242 10-years average
Rage 2 (2024) 328 242 10-years average
Total catch (2022 ) 64 159 Short-term forecast
Table 1 Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast. SSB, catch in tonnes, and recruitment in thousands.
Basis Total catch (2023) Ftotal (2023) SSB (2024) % SSB change * % TAC change ** % Advice change ***
Advice basis
F2023 = F2022 66 779 0.097 1 040 323 6.5 -0.6 -0.6
Other scenarios
Precautionary Approach 41 886 0.060 1 063 318 8.8 -37.7 -37.7
F = 0 0 0.000 1 102 083 12.8 -100.0 -100.0
F2023 = 1.1 × F2022 73 190 0.107 1 034 405 5.9 8.9 8.9
F2023 = 1.2 × F2022 79 555 0.117 1 028 534 5.3 18.4 18.4
F2023 = 0.9 × F2022 60 320 0.088 1 046 286 7.1 -10.3 -10.3
F2023 = 0.8 × F2022 53 814 0.078 1 052 295 7.7 -19.9 -19.9
F = 0.08 55 428 0.080 1 050 804 7.6 -17.5 -17.5
F = 0.084 58 112 0.084 1 048 325 7.3 -13.5 -13.5
F = 0.10 68 767 0.100 1 038 488 6.3 2.3 2.3
Suggested 50 000 t cap for all evaluated HCRs 50 000 0.072 1 055 819 8.1 -25.6 -25.6
* SSB 2024 relative to SSB 2021 (976 956 tonnes).    
** Catch in 2023 relative to TAC set by Norway and Russia for 2022 (67 210 tonnes).    
*** Advice value for 2023 relative to the advice value for 2022.    
Table 2a Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Annual catch scenarios for 2023. All weights are in tonnes.
Basis Total catch (2024) Ftotal (2024) SSB (2025) % SSB change * % TAC change ** % Advice change ***
Advice basis
F 2024 = F2023 70 164 0.097 1 055 435 8.0 5.1 5.1
Other scenarios
F = 0.06 45 191 0.060 1 101 812 12.8 -32.3 -32.3
F = 0.08 58 950 0.080 1 076 409 10.2 -11.7 -11.7
F = 0.084 61 627 0.084 1 071 423 9.7 -7.7 -7.7
F = 0.10 72 098 0.100 1 051 791 7.7 8.0 8.0
Suggested 50 000 t cap for all evaluated HCRs 50 000 0.072 1 092 973 11.9 -25.1 -25.1

Table 2b Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Annual catch scenarios for 2024. All weights are in tonnes.

* SSB 2025 relative to SSB 2021 (976 956 tonnes).

** Catch in 2024 relative to TAC in 2023 under the status quo scenario (66 779 tonnes).

*** Advice value for 2024 relative to the advice value for 2023.

The advice for 2023 is 0.9% higher than the advice for 2021 due to increasing stock size and status quo advice but 0.6% lower than the advice for 2022.

Basis of the advice

Advice basis Status quo
Management plan There is no agreed management plan for this stock. Long-term management plan options have been evaluated by ICES (ICES, 2018a).

Table 3 Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). The basis of the advice.

Quality of the assessment

The stock was benchmarked in 2018. The choice of a scaling coefficient for the Norwegian–Russian ecosystem survey is a source of potential bias of up to 50%, but the advice is robust to this uncertainty.

Data from the pelagic survey in the Norwegian Sea was reviewed in the recent benchmark assessment and the survey is now included in the assessment model. However, the survey series still does not appropriately cover the geographical distribution of the adult population, and further inclusion of the slope survey should be prioritized.

Age determination is lacking for some surveys and catches in recent years. To account for the lack of catch-at-age data in some years a procedure using length distribution and a time-averaged age-length key was applied.

To smooth out spurious variations in SSB, caused by limited sample size in the weight-at-age of the 19+ group, a fixed weight-at-age function (i.e. common across years) was adopted for the assessment model during the Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG) meeting in 2018 (ICES 2018b).

Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Historical assessment results. There was a benchmark revision in 2018.
Figure 2: Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Historical assessment results. There was a benchmark revision in 2018.

 

Issues relevant for the advice

Due to the suspension of Russian scientists from ICES, the assessment was conducted by a Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) consisting of scientists from VNIRO (Russia) and IMR (Norway) (Howell et al., 2022).

This advice has been conducted outside ICES and should not be considered as ICES advice. However, the assessment has been conducted following the previous procedures and based on the methodology agreed at the ICES benchmark in 2018 (ICES, 2018c).

There has been a significant change in the selectivity, with the fraction of the catch in the 19+ age class increasing in recent years (since 2017) and especially since the last assessment. Any evaluation of a FMSY or Fpa value is conditional on the Fbar and selectivities used in the evaluation. As a result of the changing selectivity, applying the same target Fbar will result in a reduction of the catch as a fraction of the fishable stock. Given that the catch is close to advice, and the SSB is relatively stable, we therefore propose F19+ status quo as an approximation to maintain the same overall fraction of the stock being caught. We note that this stock is due for a benchmark in 2024 prior to the next release of advice, and the advice basis should be revised at that time.

 

 Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Fishing mortalities for ages 12-18 and the 19+-group with 95 %
confidence levels.
Figure 3 Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Fishing mortalities for ages 12-18 and the 19+-group with 95 % confidence levels.

 

Long-term management plan options have been proposed by Norway and Russia and evaluated by ICES (ICES, 2018a). In the absence of an agreed management plan, the advice is based on the MSY approach. The advice has been based on F19+ = 0.06. This is the highest fishing mortality of those tested during the MSE evaluations (ICES, 2018a) that was found to be precautionary. The present advice is above F19+ = 0.06, due to the selectivity issues mentioned above and has led to a rise in biomass.

There is no international agreement on the sharing of TAC among countries and between national and international waters.

Bycatch of the endangered golden redfish (Sebastes norvegicus) should be kept at a minimum to allow for rebuilding of that stock.

 


Reference points

Framework Reference point Value Technical basis Source
MSY approach MSY Btrigger 315 000 t Bpa ICES (2018a)
FMSY 0.084 F0.1 ICES (2018a)
Precautionary approach Blim 227 000 t ~Bloss (SSB in 1992) ICES (2018a)
Bpa 315 000 t ~Blim×e(1.645 × 0.2) ICES (2018a)
Flim      
Fpa      
Management plan SSBmgt      
Fmgt      

Table 4 Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Reference points, values, and their technical basis.

Basis of the assessment

ICES stock data category 1 (ICES, 2016)
Assessment type Statistical catch-at-age model
Input data Commercial catches: international landings (tonnes), age frequencies and weight-at-age from catch sampling of the pelagic and demersal fisheries and from the survey; survey indices: numbers-at-age from BS-NoRu-Q1-Btr, Eco-NoRu-Q3-Btr, Ru-Q4-Btr;  proportion-at-age from deep pelagic ecosystem survey annual maturity data from BS-NoRu-Q1-Btr, Eco-NoRu-Q3-Btr, and commercial catch sampling; natural mortalities were fixed at 0.05.
Discards and bycatch Discarding and bycatch are assumed negligible.
Other information Last benchmark was in January 2018 (WKREDFISH; ICES, 2018c). Proposed management plans were evaluated in 2018 (WKREBMSE; ICES, 2018a).
Working group Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG)

Table 5 Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Basis of the assessment and advice.

History of the advice, catch, and management

Year ICES advice Predicted catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC ICES catches
1987 Precautionary TAC 70000* 85000 35000
1988 F = F0.1; TAC 11000 - 41000
1989 Status quo F; TAC 12000 - 47000
1990 Status quo F; TAC 18000 - 63000
1991 F at Fmed; TAC 12000 - 68000
1992 If required, precautionary TAC 22000 - 32000
1993 If required, precautionary TAC 18000 18000 12814
1994 If required, precautionary TAC - - 12721
1995 Lowest possible F - - 10284
1996 Catch at lowest possible level - - 8075
1997 Catch at lowest possible level - - 8598
1998 No directed fishery, reduce bycatch - - 14045
1999 No directed fishery, reduce bycatch - - 11209
2000 No directed fishery, bycatch at lowest possible level - - 10075
2001 No directed fishery, bycatch at lowest possible level - - 18418
2002 No directed fishery, bycatch at lowest possible level - - 6993
2003 No directed fishery, bycatch at lowest possible level - - 2520
2004 No directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - - 5493**
2005 No directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - - 8465**
2006 No directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - - 33261**
2007 No directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - 15500^ 20219**
2008 Protection of juveniles, no directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - 14500^ 1309 6 **
2009 Protection of juveniles, no directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - 10500^ 10246**
2010 Protection of juveniles, no directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - 8600^ 11924**
2011 Protection of juveniles, no directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - 7900^ 12962**
2012 Protection of juveniles, no directed fishery and low bycatch limits - 7500^ 11059**
2013 F0.1 < 47000 19500^ 9 389 **
2014 Status quo catch < 24000 36800^^ 18 426 **
2015 Precautionary approach < 30000 30000# 25 570
2016 Precautionary approach < 30000 30000# 3 4754
2017 Precautionary approach < 30000 30000# 3 0783
2018 Precautionary approach < 32658 32658# 38 046
2019 Precautionary approach < 53757 53757# 45 640
2020 Precautionary approach < 55860 55860# 53631
2021 Precautionary approach < 66158 66158# 63482 ^^^
2022 Precautionary approach < 67210 67210#  
2023 Status quo approach < 66779^^^    
2024 Status quo approach < 70164^^^    

Table 6 Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). ICES advice, agreed TACs, the official and unreported landings, and ICES catches. All weights are in tonnes.

* Includes both Sebastes mentella and S. norvegicus .

** Includes the pelagic catches in the Norwegian Sea outside the EEZ.

^ TAC set by the North-East Atlantic Fisheries Commission (NEAFC) for an Olympic fishery in international waters.

^^ Sum of TAC set by NEAFC in international waters and by Norway in the Norwegian Economic Zone.

^^^ In 2022 assessment and advice was carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches for 2021 and gave advice for 2023 and 2024.

# TAC set by jointly by Norway and Russia


History of catch and landings

Table 7 Beaked redfish in subareas 1 and 2. Catches inside and outside the NEAFC Regulatory Area (RA) as estimated by JRN-AFWG.

Year Inside the NEAFC RA (tonnes) Outside the NEAFC RA (tonnes) Total catches (tonnes) Proportion inside the NEAFC RA (%)
2019 6060 39580 45640 13. 3 %
2020 5469 48162 53631 10.2 %
2021 2872 60610 63482 4.5 %
Year Other countries  Denmark Estonia Faroe Islands France Germany Greenland Iceland Ireland Latvia Lithuania Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Russia Spain UK Total
England & Wales Scotland **
1993 Can. 8 4   13 50 35 1           5182   963 6260 5 293 - 12814
1994   28   4 74 18 1   3       6511   895 5021 30 124 12 12721
1995       3 16 176 2   4       2646   927 6346 67 93 4 10284
1996       4 75 119 3   2       6053   467 925 328 76 23 8075
1997       4 37 81 16   6       4657 1 474 2972 272 71 7 8598
1998       20 73 100 14   9       9733 13 125 3646 177 93 41 14045
1999       73 26 202 50   3       7884 6 65 2731 29 112 28 11209
2000       50 12 62 29 48 1       6020 2 115 3519 87   130 10075
2001       74 16 198 17 3 4       13937 5 179 3775 90   120 18418
2002     15 75 58 99 18 41 4       2152 8 242 3904 190   188 6993
2003       64 22 32 8 5 5       1210 7 44 952 47   124 2520
2004 Swe. 1     588 13 10 4 10 3       1375 42 235 2879 257   76 5493
2005     5 1147 46 33 39 4 4     7 1760   140 5023 163   95 8465
2006 Can. 433   396 3808 215 2483 63 2513 4 341 845   4710 2496 1804 11413 710   1027 33261
2007     684 2197 234 520 29 1587 17 349 785   3209 1081 1483 5660 2181   202 20219
2008       1849 187 16 25 9 9 267 117 13 2220 8 713 7117 463   83 13096
2009 EU 889     1343 15 42   33       3 2677 338 806 3843 177   80 10246
2010       979 175 21 12 2   243 457   2065   293 6414 1184   79 11924
2011       984 175 835   2   536 565   2471 11 613 5037 1678   55 12962
2012       259   517   36   447 449   2114 318 1038 4101 1780     11059
2013       697   80 21 1   280 262   1750 84 1078 3677 1459     9389
2014       743 215 446 15 -   215 167 3 13149 103 505 1704 1162     18426
2015       657 49 242 48 3   537 192 3 19433 5 678 1142 2529   52 25570
2016       502 134 493 74 24 0 1243 1065   18191 208 1066 8419 3213   3213 34754
2017     4 443 45 763 66 3   562 790   17077 102 1060 6593 2838   2838 30783
2018       425 67 2473 82 10   1020 1010 374 18594 275 699 10497 2457   2457 38046
2019       156 370 1599 615 10     653 244 23844 471 1422 13444 2222   2222 45640
2020       149 163 1807 62 5   2 1081 1483 32950 4 870 13874 744   744 53631
2021*       290 218 1166 85 6     1379   43797 2 381 14887 615   615 63482 ^

Table 8 Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). History of commercial landings by country. All weights are in tonnes.

* Provisional figures. ** Includes UK (E&W) since 2000
^ In 2022 assessment and advice was carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches for 2021 and gave advice for 2023 and 2024.


Summary of the assessment

Year Recruitment Spawning-stock biomass Total Fishable Catches Fishing mortality
Recruitment age 2 High 95% Low 95% SSB High 95% Low 95% Biomass Ages-2+ Biomass Ages-6+ F ages 19+ High 95% Low 95%
thousands tonnes
1992 429977 547252 337834 272832 370101 201127 578519 538268 15590 0.042 0.058 0.03
1993 289490 365156 229503 323633 427869 244791 625353 574249 12814 0.031 0.041 0.023
1994 209655 264337 166284 408052 528118 315282 683931 633320 12721 0.027 0.036 0.02
1995 200014 251339 159170 469927 600659 367648 749296 703309 10284 0.02 0.027 0.015
1996 159840 200852 127203 388973 505507 299303 815380 783244 8075 0.014 0.018 0.011
1997 111468 139928 88797 478373 606875 377080 879859 855375 8598 0.013 0.017 0.01
1998 57486 72381 45655 540768 678977 430692 939125 917192 14045 0.019 0.024 0.015
1999 46459 58519 36885 608797 755222 490761 987290 970504 11209 0.014 0.018 0.011
2000 36893 46354 29364 705479 866531 574360 1028121 1016753 10075 0.011 0.014 0.009
2001 35692 45505 27995 655042 807472 531387 1061862 1055391 18418 0.02 0.025 0.016
2002 42423 54032 33309 738944 902669 604915 1076126 1070770 6993 0.007 0.009 0.006
2003 45546 58175 35658 815196 989820 671379 1092350 1087725 2520 0.003 0.003 0.002
2004 61313 77705 48379 821177 994104 678332 1105561 1100773 5493 0.006 0.007 0.004
2005 117600 148460 93155 876777 1057921 726650 1111756 1105858 8465 0.008 0.01 0.007
2006 228265 288780 180431 863053 1042471 714514 1114103 1106351 33261 0.042 0.057 0.031
2007 341155 437321 266135 1006505 1212420 835563 1093005 1080772 20219 0.024 0.033 0.018
2008 379932 490519 294277 943961 1141892 780338 1086510 1065557 13096 0.018 0.025 0.014
2009 381522 497778 292418 981572 1185259 812888 1089978 1056792 10246 0.012 0.017 0.009
2010 484675 642042 365879 934873 1130950 772791 1102470 1058427 11924 0.013 0.018 0.01
2011 585041 790237 433126 924087 1117215 764345 1121726 1072615 12962 0.015 0.021 0.01
2012 514156 707787 373497 918287 1108923 760423 1150236 1097864 11059 0.013 0.018 0.009
2013 277390 394846 194875 870554 1053448 719413 1193293 1132140 9389 0.011 0.016 0.008
2014 301447 440457 206309 818776 992986 675129 1251414 1186181 18426 0.023 0.032 0.016
2015 287730 456560 181331 839740 1014367 695176 1306128 1251762 25570 0.032 0.043 0.024
2016 261768 455820 150328 896320 1076019 746632 1349036 1314328 34754 0.044 0.058 0.033
2017 267611 505336 141719 872141 1049785 724558 1385571 1349432 30783 0.042 0.058 0.031
2018 273985 609408 123181 892107 1072432 742104 1426595 1392068 38046 0.054 0.073 0.04
2019 277225 733569 104767 919610 1105110 765248 1458710 1426141 45640 0.066 0.087 0.049
2020 271416 936334 78676 950770 1143785 790328 1482233 1449024 53631 0.085 0.116 0.063
2021 265735 1155311 61122 976956 1179110 809461 1497178 1463463 63482 0.097 0.135 0.07
2022 307756 *     996124                

Table 9 Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assessment summary. High and low refer to 95% confidence bounds.

* Assumed value ( regression between survey indices and recruitment time series)


References

Howell et al. 2022. Report of the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG). IMR-PINRO no.6-2022.

ICES. 2016. Advice basis. In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2016. ICES Advice 2016, Book 1, Section 1.2.

ICES. 2018a. Workshop on the evaluation of harvest control rules for Sebastes mentella in ICES areas 1 and 2 (WKREBMSE). June –August 2018, by correspondence. ICES CM 2018/ACOM:52, IN PRESS.

ICES. 2018b. Report of the Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG), 18–24 April 2018, JRC, Ispra, Italy. ICES CM 2018/ACOM:06, 857 pp.

ICES. 2018c. Report of the Benchmark Workshop on Redfish Stocks (WKREDFISH). 29 January –2 February 2018, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2018/ACOM:34, 174 pp.