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Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea capelin in 2025

— ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W

Report series: IMR-PINRO 2024-11 Published: 18.10.2024
Subject: Lodde – Barentshavet Program: Barentshavet og Polhavet
Approved by: Research Director(s): Geir Huse Program leader(s): Maria Fossheim

Stock Name: Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W )

Released xx October 2024

Advice on fishing opportunities

The Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) advises that when the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission management plan is applied, there should be zero catches of Barents Sea capelin in 2025.

Stock development over time

There is less than 95% probability that the spawning stock size will be above Bescapement (200 000 tonnes) in 2025. No reference points for fishing pressure have been defined for this stock.

 

Figure 1. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Catch, recruitment, survey biomass (age 1+, maturing (≥ 14cm) and immature (< 14 cm) stock biomass), and SSB (1 April) with 5 and 95 % confidence limits. The biomass reference points relate to SSB. Survey biomass and recruitment values are estimates from the acoustic survey completed by the beginning of October. The recruitment plot is shown only from 1981 onwards since earlier estimates of age 1 capelin are based on incomplete survey coverage. SSB estimates are shown only from 1989 onwards because a different model was used previously, and uncertainty estimates are only available from 2018 onwards. The 2022 estimate of recruitment, maturing and immature stock biomass is not corrected for incomplete survey coverage. Incomplete survey coverage in 2018 also might have led to recruitment underestimation.
Figure 1. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Catch, recruitment, survey biomass (age 1+, maturing (≥14cm) and immature (<14 cm) stock biomass), and SSB (1 April) with 5 and 95 % confidence limits. The biomass reference points relate to SSB. Survey biomass and recruitment values are estimates from the acoustic survey completed by the beginning of October. The recruitment plot is shown only from 1981 onwards since earlier estimates of age 1 capelin are based on incomplete survey coverage. SSB estimates are shown only from 1989 onwards because a different model was used previously, and uncertainty estimates are only available from 2018 onwards. The 2022 estimate of recruitment, maturing and immature stock biomass is not corrected for incomplete survey coverage. Incomplete survey coverage in 2018 also might have led to recruitment underestimation.

 

Catch scenarios

Calculations of catch scenarios are based on a forward projection from the autumn acoustic survey. It involves that SSB for April 2025 is calculated by taking into account predation by immature cod and other sources of natural mortality.

Variable Value Notes

Maturing stock

biomass 2024

534 000

Mean biomass of fish at or above the length‑at‑maturity (14 cm),

estimated based on the autumn acoustic survey 1 October 2024.

These fish are the basis for the spawning stock in April 2025.

Predation by immature

cod January–March 2025;

from the predation model

250 000

Based on the prediction of cod abundance in 2025 from the 2024

cod stock assessment (JRN-AFWG 2024a).

Table 1. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast. All biomasses are in tonnes.
Basis Total catch (2025) Median SSB (2025)

P(SSB 2025 > 

Bescapement) in %

 % TAC change* % advice change**
MP harvest control rule, P (SSB > Bescapement =200 000 t) = 95% 0 177 000 40 -100 -100
Harvest control rule with P (SSB > Bescapement =150 000 t) = 95% 0 177 000 63 -100 -100
Harvest control rule with P (SSB > Bescapement =400 000 t) = 95% 0 177 000 1 -100 -100
Table 2. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Annual catch scenarios. P = probability. All weights are in tonnes.

*TAC (2025) vs. TAC (2024).

**Advice (2025) vs. Advice (2024).

 

Figure 2 Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Probabilistic prognosis of SSB for the maturing stock from 1 October 2024 to 1 April 2025, based on the acoustic survey estimate from autumn 2024 assuming zero catch. The yellow line marks the median while red band marks the 25th-75th percentiles and green band 5th-95 th percentiles of the distribution. Dotted black line marks the Bescapement. The values are based on 5000 simulation replicates.
Figure 2. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Probabilistic prognosis of SSB for the maturing stock from 1 October 2024 to 1 April 2025, based on the acoustic survey estimate from autumn 2024 assuming zero catch. The yellow line marks the median while red band marks the 25th-75th percentiles and green band 5th-95th percentiles of the distribution. Dotted black line marks the Bescapement. The values are based on 5000 simulation replicates.

 

Basis of the advice

Advice basis Management plan
Management plan

In 2002, the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission (JNRFC) adopted the following harvest control rule (HCR) for Barents Sea capelin: ‘The TAC for the following year should be set so that, with 95% probability, at least 200 000 tonnes of capelin (Blim) will be allowed to spawn’. ICES evaluated this HCR as well as alternative HCRs suggested by JNRFC in 2016 (ICES, 2016), and only the existing HCR was found to be precautionary. Following ICES evaluation, the JNRFC decided to maintain the existing HCR (JNRFC, 2016).

It should be noted that the harvest control rule explicitly refers to Bescapement in the latest benchmark report (ICES, 2023), and Bescapement is set to 200 000 tonnes (Table 4).

Table 3. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). The basis of the advice.

Quality of the assessment

The geographical survey coverage of the Barents Sea capelin stock during the BESS in 2024 was close to complete (Figure 3). In the main distribution area the degree of coverage was very good. The areas west of Svalbard and west of Frans Josef Land were not covered, but in previous years only minor concentrations have been found there.

 

Figure 3 Survey coverage (transects included in estimation) and geographical distribution of acoustic recordings of capelin in autumn 2023 and 2024. The size of the circles corresponds to nautical acoustic scattering coefficient (NASC; m2/nmi2) per 1 nautical mile. Grey lines mark transect sections with no acoustic recordings of capelin. The south western strata were also covered in both years, but there were no capelin recordings there so it was excluded from the estimate and the map.
Figure 3. Survey coverage (transects included in estimation) and geographical distribution of acoustic recordings of capelin in autumn 2023 and 2024. The size of the circles corresponds to nautical acoustic scattering coefficient (NASC; m2/nmi2) per 1 nautical mile. Grey lines mark transect sections with no acoustic recordings of capelin. The south western strata were also covered in both years, but there were no capelin recordings there so it was excluded from the estimate and the map.

 

Issues relevant for the advice

Due to the temporary suspension of Russian scientists from ICES, this assessment was conducted by a Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) consisting of scientists from VNIRO (Russia) and IMR (Norway) (JRN-AFWG 2024b). This advice has been conducted outside ICES and should not be considered as ICES advice. However, this assessment and advice has been produced following the new methodology agreed and described in detail at the recent ICES benchmark in 2022 (ICES, 2023).

On request from managers (Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission), Trochta et al. (2024) assessed harvest control rules for capelin in the Barents Sea using a management strategy evaluation (MSE), a modelling framework that simulates population and fishery responses to management actions. The form of the current escapement rule is retained and is defined by Bescapement, the biomass that should be allowed to escape to spawn after fishing is accounted for. The MSE specifically tested four different Bescapement values (100 000, 150 000, 200 000 and 400 000 tonnes) with and without three alternative fixed minimum quotas (25 000, 50 000 or 75 000 tonnes).

All four Bescapement values without fixed minimum quotas maintained a low risk (<5%) of spawning biomass falling below Blim, the SSB below which recruitment is reduced, assuming historical capelin productivity, accurate survey estimates and that survey precision is correctly estimated. However, a Bescapement equal to 100 000 tonnes showed notably higher risk (of SSB<Blim) if the survey estimate is either biased high or survey precision is lower than assumed in the assessment. High probabilities of fishery closures resulted from Bescapement = 400 000 tonnes. All of the alternative rules using fixed minimum quotas showed very high risk of SSB falling below Blim and the model framework projected reduced future recruitment to the extent of stock collapse over the long term. In Table 2 we have thus provided catch options for the tested Bescapement values which were found to be precautionary, i.e. 150 000, 200 000 (i.e. current HCR) and 400 000 tonnes.

Reference points

Framework Reference point Value Technical basis Source
MSY approach MSY Btrigger      
FMSY      
Precautionary approach Blim 68  000 SSB1990, which was the lowest SSB after the herring collapse that has produced a good year class. SSB estimated on April 1. ICES (2023a)
Bpa      
Flim      
Fpa      
Management plan Bescapement 200 000 The Bescapement used in the HCR corresponds to 95% probability of the SSB being above Bescapement JNRFC (2016)
Fmgt      
Table 4. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Reference points, values, and their technical basis. Values in tonnes.

Basis of the assessment

ICES stock data category 1 (ICES, 2023b).
Assessment type Model based on acoustic survey and prediction six months ahead to calculate spawning biomass. Target escapement strategy used.
Input data Norwegian–Russian acoustic survey in autumn. Model estimates of maturation based on survey data. Natural mortalities from multispecies model (predation by immature cod on prespawning capelin based on information on cod distribution, abundance and stomach content data).
Discards and bycatch All catches are assumed to be landed. The amount of bycaught capelin in other fisheries is very low.
Indicators None.
Other information Latest benchmark was in 2022 (ICES, 2023a).
Working group Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG).
Table 5. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Basis of assessment and advice

History of the advice, catch, and management

Year ICES /JRN-AFWG advice Catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC ICES catch
1988 No catch 0 0 0
1989 No catch 0 0 0
1990 No catch 0 0 0
1991 TAC 1000000 900000 933000
1992 SSB > 400 000–500000 t 834000 1100000 1123000
1993 A cautious approach, SSB > 400 000–500 000 t 600000 630000 586000
1994 No fishing 0 0 0
1995 No fishing 0 0 0
1996 No fishing 0 0 0
1997 No fishing 0 0 1000
1998 No fishing 0 0 3000
1999 SSB > 500 000 t 79000 80000 101000
2000 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 435000 435000 414000
2001 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 630000 630000 568000
2002 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 650000 650000 651000
2003 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 310000 310000 282000
2004 No fishing 0 0 0
2005 No fishing 0 0 1000*
2006 No fishing 0 0 0
2007 No fishing 0 0 4000*
2008 No fishing 0 0 12000*
2009 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 390000 390000 307000
2010 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 360000 360000 323000
2011 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 380000 380000 360000
2012 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 320000 320000 296000
2013 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 200000 200000 177000
2014 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 65000 65000 66000
2015 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 6000 120000 115000
2016 Zero catch 0 0 0
2017 Zero catch 0 0 0
2018 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 205000 205000 194520
2019 Zero catch 0 0 ** 53*
2020 Management plan 0 0** 31*
2021 Management plan 0 0** 10*
2022 Management plan ≤ 70000 70000 65246***
2023 Management plan*** ≤ 62000*** 62000 60692***
2024 Management plan*** ≤ 196000*** 196000 168680***
2025 Management plan*** 0***    
Table 6. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Advice, agreed TAC, and catch. All weights are in tonnes.

*Research catch and bycatches in other fisheries.

**Up to 500 tonnes was allowed for research survey catches.

***In 2022-2024 assessment and advice was carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches and gave advice.

History of catch and landings

Year Winter Summer–Autumn Year total
Norway Russia Others Total Norway Russia Total
1965 217000 7000 0 224000 0 0 0 224000
1966 380000 9000 0 389000 0 0 0 389000
1967 403000 6000 0 409000 0 0 0 409000
1968 460000 15000 0 475000 62000 0 62000 537000
1969 436000 1000 0 437000 243000 0 243000 680000
1970 955000 8000 0 963000 346000 5000 351000 1314000
1971 1300000 14000 0 1314000 71000 7000 78000 1392000
1972 1208000 24000 0 1232000 347000 13000 360000 1591000
1973 1078000 34000 0 1112000 213000 12000 225000 1337000
1974 749000 63000 0 812000 237000 99000 336000 1148000
1975 559000 301000 43000 903000 407000 131000 538000 1441000
1976 1252000 228000 0 1480000 739000 368000 1107000 2587000
1977 1441000 317000 2000 1760000 722000 504000 1226000 2986000
1978 784000 429000 25000 1238000 360000 318000 678000 1916000
1979 539000 342000 5000 886000 570000 326000 896000 1782000
1980 539000 253000 9000 801000 459000 388000 847000 1648000
1981 784000 429000 28000 1241000 454000 292000 746000 1986000
1982 568000 260000 5000 833000 591000 336000 927000 1760000
1983 751000 373000 36000 1160000 758000 439000 1197000 2357000
1984 330000 257000 42000 629000 481000 368000 849000 1477000
1985 340000 234000 17000 591000 113000 164000 277000 868000
1986 72000 51000 0 123000 0 0 0 123000
1987 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1989 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1990 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991 528000 159000 20000 707000 31000 195000 226000 933000
1992 620000 247000 24000 891000 73000 159000 232000 1123000
1993 402000 170000 14000 586000 0 0 0 586000
1994 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1995 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1996 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1997 0 0 0 0 0 1000 1000 1000
1998 0 2000 0 2000 0 1000 1000 3000
1999 50000 33000 0 83000 0 22000 22000 105000
2000 279000 94000 8000 381000 0 29000 29000 410000
2001 376000 180000 8000 564000 0 14000 14000 578000
2002 398000 228000 17000 643000 0 16000 16000 659000
2003 180000 93000 9000 282000 0 0 0 282000
2004 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2005 1000 0 0 1000 0 0 0 1000
2006 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2007 2000 2000 0 4000 0 0 0 4000
2008 5000 5000 0 10000 0 2000 2000 12000
2009 233000 73000 0 306000 0 1000 1000 307000
2010 246000 77000 0 323000 0 0 0 323000
2011 273000 87000 0 360000 0 0 0 360000
2012 228000 68000 0 296000 0 0 0 296000
2013 116000 60000 0 177000 0 0 0 177000
2014 40000 26000 0 66000 0 0 0 66000
2015 71000 44000 0 115000 0 0 0 115000
2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018 128520 66000 0 194520 0 0 0 194520
2019 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 53
2020 9 0 0 9 0 21 0 31
2021 2 0 0 2 0 8 0 10
2022 42597 22646 0 65243 0 3 3 65246
2023 37652 23040 0 60692 0 0 0 60692
2024 117555 51125 0 168680        
Table 7. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). The history of official catches is presented for each country participating in the fishery. All weights are in tonnes.

Summary of the assessment

Year Predicted SSB assuming catch =  advised catch, 1 April Recruitment from autumn acoustic survey, 1 October Stock biomass from autumn acoustic survey, 1 October Catch
Median 5th percentile 95th percentile Immature Maturing biomass
tonnes Age 1, millions tonnes
1973         3796000 1350000 1337000
1974         4831000 907000 1148000
1975         4900000 2916000 1441000
1976         3220000 3200000 2587000
1977         2127000 2676000 2986000
1978         2845000 1402000 1916000
1979         2934000 1227000 1782000
1980         2810000 3913000 1648000
1981       402560 2341000 1551000 1986000
1982       528310 2187000 1591000 1760000
1983       514880 2897000 1329000 2357000
1984       154750 1756000 1208000 1477000
1985       38690 572000 285000 868000
1986       6029 55000 65000 123000
1987       37578 83000 17000 0
1988       20987 227000 200000 0
1989 84000     189200 695000 174000 0
1990 92000     700370 3221000 2617000 0
1991 643000     402090 5034000 2248000 933000
1992 302000     351290 2927000 2228000 1123000
1993 293000     2237 467000 330000 586000
1994 139000     19761 105000 94000 0
1995 60000     7130 75000 118000 0
1996 60000     81907 254000 248000 0
1997 85000     98876 598000 312000 1000
1998 94000     179026 1123000 932000 3000
1999 382000     155921 1056000 1718000 105000
2000 599000     449166 2177000 2097000 410000
2001 626000     113587 1610000 2019000 578000
2002 496000     59703 919000 1291000 659000
2003 427000     82444 254000 280000 282000
2004 94000     62056 289000 225000 0
2005 122000     22661 143000 355000 1000
2006 72000     57294 1576000 348000 0
2007 189000     195125 1544000 846000 4000
2008 330000     292392 1460000 2186000 12000
2009 517000     172754 2248000 1892000 307000
2010 504000     243649 904000 2248000 323000
2011 487000     194255 444000 2059000 360000
2012 504000     176130 163000 1996000 296000
2013 479000     323845 882000 1725000 177000
2014 399000     103136 541000 785000 66000
2015 504000     37832 111000 434000 115000
2016 82000     32575 1348000 153000 0
2017 37000     115370 2528000 1547000 0
2018 462000 200000 930000 58812 1356000 1100000 194520
2019 317000 168282 613733 18029 1666000 302000 53
2020 85110 38830 171850 370016 353000 542000 31
2021 156376 75197 314559 222667 1576000 1459000 10
2022 423751 201897 838670 75460* 1544000* 817000* 65246
2023 534000 201000 1250000 108509 1460000 1286000 60692
2024 590000 201000 1011000 58560 2248000 534000 168680
2025 177000 56000 332000        
               
Table 8. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Assessment summary. Predicted SSB is the modelled stochastic spawning-stock biomass (after the winter fishery). Maturing biomass refers to fish at or above the length-at-maturity (14 cm). Weights are in tonnes, recruitment numbers in millions.

*Not adjusted for incomplete survey coverage.

References

ICES 2001. Barents Sea capelin (Subareas I and II, excluding Division IIa west of 5°W). In Report of the Advisory Committee on Fishery Management, 2001, Part 1, Section 3.1.8, pp. 65–70. ICES Cooperative Research Report No. 246. 921 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5383.

ICES 2016. Report of the second Workshop on Management Plan Evaluation on Northeast Arctic cod and haddock and Barents Sea capelin, 25–28 January 2016, Kirkenes, Norway. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:47. 76 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5296.

ICES 2023a. Benchmark workshop on capelin (WKCAPELIN). ICES Scientific Reports. 5:62. 282 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.23260388

ICES 2023b. Advice on fishing opportunities. In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2023. ICES Advice 2023, section 1.1.1. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.22240624

JNRFC 2016. Protocol of the 46th Session of the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission, Annex 12. Translated from Norwegian to English. For an accurate interpretation, please consult the text in the official languages of the Commission (Norwegian and Russian) at https://www.jointfish.com/content/download/501/6352/file/46-norsk.pdf (Norwegian) and https://www.jointfish.com/rus/content/download/502/6357/file/46-russisk.pdf (Russian).

JRN-AFWG 2024a. Report of the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) 2024. IMR-PINRO report series 7-2024, 305 pp.

JRN-AFWG 2024b. Report of capelin assessment by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) 2024. IMR-PINRO report series x-2024, xx pp.

Trochta, J., B. Bogstad, Y. Kovalev, D. Prozorkevich, G. Skaret, S. Vatnehol, and D. Howell. 2024. Report on evaluation of harvest rules for Barents Sea capelin in subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic), excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W. In press.