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Advice on fishing opportunities for Greenland halibut in 2025 and 2026 in ICES subareas 1 and 2

Author(s): Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG)

Report series: IMR-PINRO 2024-5 Published: 21.06.2024 Updated: 09.07.2024
Subject: Blåkveite
Approved by: Research Director(s): Geir Huse Program leader(s): Bjørn Erik Axelsen

Stock Name: Northeast Arctic Greenland halibut (ICES areas 1 and 2)

 

Advice on fishing opportunities

The Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2025 should be no more than 12 431 tonnes, and catches in 2026 should be no more than 14 891 tonnes.

Stock development over time

The female spawning stock biomass (SSB) is below Bpa, above Blim, and declining. Total harvestable biomass (≥45 cm, HSB) is in a rapid decline. Harvest rate is increasing and is now well above the HRMSY. Since the female SSB is below Bpa, advised fishing mortality is reduced consistent with the MSY approach.

Standard assessment graphs
Figure 1. Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). From top left to bottom right: catches, recruitment at age 2, harvest rate for fish ≥5 cm with estimated HR MSY , and female SSB as well as HSB (harvestable stock biomass defined as ≥ 45 cm fish). The biomass reference points relate to female SSB.

 

Catch scenarios

The advice for 2025 and 2026 is lower than the advice for 2024 due to high fishing pressure resulting in decreasing stock size and the female SSB stock being under Bpa.

Variable Value Notes
Harvest rate ≥ 45 cm (2024) 0.2 12 Based on expected catch in 2024.
Biomass ≥ 45 cm (2025) 106 039 Beginning of 202 5.
Female SSB (2025) 39 462 Beginning of 202 5.
Recruitment age 1 (2024 -2026) 50 972 Average 1990-2017 recruitment. Does not influence short-term forecast .
Assumed catch (2024) 23 050 TAC for 2024 plus mean catch above TAC 2018-2023 (1800 t).
Table 1. Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assumptions made for the interim year and values in the forecast. Biomasses and catch in tonnes, and recruitment in thousands.
Basis Total catch (2025) HR (2025) SSB (2026) % SSB change* % TAC change** % Advice change***
Advice basis
MSY approach: HRMSY x SSB 2025 /Bpa 12 431 0.117 41 231 4.5 -42 - 20
Other scenarios
HRMSY 14 726 0.139 40 214 1.9 -31 -5.4
HR=0 0 0 46 739 18 -100 -100
Assumed catch in 2024 23 050 0.217 35 756 -9.4 8.5 48
Table 2. Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Annual catch scenarios for 2025. All weights are in tonnes. The advice basis using the MSY approach, and three other scenarios are listed in the first column. Columns thereafter: total allowable catch (TAC), harvest rate (HR) for ≥45 cm fish, female spawning stock biomass (SSB) in the beginning of 2026.

* SSB start of 2026 relative to end of 2024.

** Advice value for 2025 relative to the TAC value in 2024 (21 250 tonnes).

*** Advice value for 202 5 relative to the advice value for 202 4 (15 560 tonnes) .

Basis Total catch (2026) HR (2026) SSB (2027) % SSB change* % TAC change** % Advice change***
Advice basis
MSY approach: HR MSY x SSB 2026 /B pa 14 891 0.123 43 042 9.1 -30 -4.3
Other scenarios
HR MSY 16 538 0.139 41 278 4.6 -22 6.3
HR=0 0 0 55 330 40 -100 -100
Assumed catch in 2024 23 050 0.209 33 330 -16 8.5 48
Table 3. Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Annual catch scenarios for 2026. All weights are in tonnes. The advice basis using MSY approach, and three other scenarios are listed in the first column. Columns thereafter: total allowable catch (TAC), harvest rate (HR) for ≥45 cm fish, female spawning stock biomass (SSB) in the beginning of 2027.

* SSB start of 2027 relative to end of 2024, i.e the cumulative change over the 2-year advice period.

** Advice value for 2026 relative to the TAC value in 2024 (21 250 tonnes).

*** Advice value for 202 6 relative to the advice value for 202 4 (15 560 tonnes) .

Basis of the advice

Advice basis MSY
Management plan There is no agreed precautionary management plan for Greenland halibut in this area.
Table 4. Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). The basis of the advice.

Quality of the assessment

There was an ICES benchmark between the 2021 and 2023 assessment. The new assessment (including age data) results in considerably lower biomass levels and higher harvest rate, but the trends and catch advice are similar. This revision suggests that the stock is more impacted by the current level of catch above advice than was previously believed. In the 2021 assessment the biomass trends were considered reliable, but the absolute level of biomass was considered highly uncertain. Although the inclusion of age data is likely to have improved the estimation of absolute biomass, this should still be considered uncertain.

Peaks in recruitment were most likely exaggerated in the previous assessment model. There is evidence for a good recruitment event in 2019, although the magnitude of this is still uncertain.

The 2024 assessment is consistent with the 2023 assessment and continues along the expected trends (Figure 2).

Historical retrospective plots
Figure 2. Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Historical assessment results. Black lines; 2024 assessment. Blue lines; 2023 assessment. Yellow lines; 2021 assessment. Reference points refer to the new assessment model results only (2024, 2023). Female SSB was missing from the 2021 model.

 

Issues relevant for the advice

Due to the temporary suspension of Russian scientists from ICES, this assessment was conducted by a Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) consisting of scientists from VNIRO (Russia) and IMR (Norway) (Howell et al., 2024). This advice has been conducted outside ICES and should not be considered as ICES advice. However, the assessment has been produced following the methodology agreed at the ICES benchmark in 2023 (ICES, 2023).

Higher bycatch rates of Greenland halibut recently observed in the Norwegian cod and haddock fisheries may be partly to do with shifting distribution of those fisheries rather than Greenland halibut stock trends. Catch per unit of effort of the Russian target Greenland halibut fishery along the continental slope and bycatches in the Barents Sea do not show obvious downward trends during the last decade.

Greenland halibut is a long-lived species which requires low fishing pressure – the stock is currently declining and has dropped below Bpa. Due to the long lifespan and the key survey being run every second year, the advice is given on a two-year basis.

The Greenland halibut population extends past the Joint Norwegian Russian Fisheries Commission (JNRFC) domain and surveys considered in the assessment do not cover the entire distribution.

Note that the advice presented here covers the JNRFC managed area as well as international waters in the Barents Sea and British waters in ICES area 2. Therefore, the advice presented here covers all those catches.

Reference points

Framework Reference point Value Technical basis Source
MSY approach MSY  19 142 tonnes Maximum sustainable yield (long term) (ICES, 2023; Howell et al. 2023)
HRMSY 0.139 HR ( ≥ 45cm) leading to MSY (ICES, 2023); Howell et al. 2023)
Precautionary approach Blim 33 391 tonnes Lowest modelled mature female sub-stock biomass (ICES, 2023; Howell et al. 2023)
Bpa 46 747 tonnes B lim x 1.4 (female SSB) (ICES, 2023; Howell et al. 2023)
Btrigger 46 747 tonnes B pa (female SSB) (ICES, 2023; Howell et al. 2023)
HRlim 0.165 HR ( ≥ 45cm) leading to P(SSB<B lim )=0.5 (ICES, 2023; Howell et al. 2023)
HRpa 0.145 HR( ≥ 45cm), when the ICES Advice Rule is applied, leading to P(SSB < Blim) = 0.05 (ICES, 2023; Howell et al. 2023)
Table 5. Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Reference points, values, and their technical basis.

Basis of the assessment

ICES stock data category 1
Assessment type Age–length-structured (Gadget model).
Input data Trends in biomass for five survey indices from three surveys: the Norwegian slope survey (G1165), the Russian autumn bottom trawl survey at the slope (G5348), and three survey indices from the Ecosystem survey (10-17 cm, 18-27 cm and 28-65 cm). Length distributions from these three surveys and from the Joint winter survey (A6996) and the Norwegian slope survey in spring (G5678); catch-in-tonnes from five aggregated commercial fleets (Russian, trawl and minor gears; Russian, gillnet and longline; Norwegian, trawl and minor gears; Norwegian, gillnet and longline; 3rd countries); age and maturity-at-length data from the Norwegian slope survey (G1165).
Discards and bycatch Not included, considered negligible.
Other information Last assessment update from ICES benchmark in February 2023 (ICES, 2023) used by JRN-AFWG 2023.
Working group Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG).
Table 6. Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Basis of the assessment and advice.

History of the advice, catch, and management

Year ICES advice Predicted catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC – Norway/JNRFC TAC to Norway–UK/EU zone^ in ICES subareas 2 and 6 combined ^^ ICES catches
1987 Precautionary TAC - -   18 744
1988 No decrease in SSB 19 000 -   19 322
1989 F = F(87); TAC 21 000 -   18 353
1990 F = F(8 9 ); TAC 15 000 -   22 555
1991 F at Fmed; TAC; improved expl. pattern 9 000 -   33 318
1992 2 Rebuild SSB(1991) 6 000 7 000*   8 603
1993 TAC 7 000 7 000*   11 932
1994 F<0.1 <12 000 11 000*   9 226
1995 No fishing 0 2 500**   11 734
1996 No fishing 0 2 500**   14 347
1997 No fishing 0 2 500**   9 410
1998 No fishing 0 2 500**   11 893
1999 No fishing 0 2 500**   19 517
2000 No fishing 0 2 500**   14 297
2001 Reduce catch to rebuild stock <11 000 2 500**   16 374
2002 Reduce F substantially <11 000 2 500**   13 293
2003 Reduce catch to increase stock <13 000 2 500**   13 446
2004 Do not exceed recent low catches <13 000 2 500**   18 900
2005 Do not exceed recent low catches <13 000 2 500**   18 834
2006 Do not exceed recent low catches <13 000 2 500**   17 876
2007 Reduce catch to increase stock <13 000 2 500**   15 458
2008 Reduce catch to increase stock <13 000 2 500**   13 809
2009 Same advice as previous year <13 000 2 500**   12 982
2010 Same advice as previous year <13 000 15 000*** 350 15 235
2011 Same advice as previous year <13 000 15 000*** 350 16 684
2012 No increase in catches <15 000 18 000*** 350 20 284
2013 No increase in catches <15 000 18 000*** 824 21 980
2014 No new advice, same as for 2013 <15 000 18 000*** 1000 22 611
2015 Same as for 2014 <15 000 18 000*** 1000 25 081
2016 Precautionary approach <19 800 22 000*** 1100 25 385
2017 Same advice as previous year <19 800 24 000*** 1100 26 437
2018 Precautionary approach <23 000 27 000*** 1100 28 600
2019 Same advice as previous year <23 000 27 000*** 1250 28 823
2020 Precautionary approach <23 000 27 000*** 1250 28 572
2021 Same advice as previous year <23 000 27 000*** 0 28 216
2022 Precautionary approach ≤ 19 094 25 000*** 600 27 655
2023 Precautionary approach ≤ 18 494 25 000*** 700 26 931
2024 MSY approach^^^ ≤ 15 560 21 250*** 600  
2025 MSY approach^^^ ≤ 12 431      
2026 MSY approach^^^ ≤ 14 891      
Table 7. Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). ICES advice, agreed TACs, and ICES catches. All weights are in tonnes.

* Set by Norwegian authorities.

** Set by Norwegian authorities for the non-trawl fishery; allowable bycatch in the trawl fishery is additional to this.

*** Set by the Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission (JNRFC).

^ UK after 2020.

^^ Part of this TAC is taken in the assessment area.

^^^ In 2023 and 2024 the assessment and the advice were carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic fisheries (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches for 2021-2023 and gave advice for 2023-2026.

History of catch and landings

Year   Denmark   Estonia   Faroe Islands   Germany   France   Greenland   Iceland   Ireland   Latvia   Lithuania   Norway   Poland   Portugal   Russia   Spain   United Kingdom Total  
1984   0 0 0 2 165 138 0 0 0 0 0 3 540 0 0 15 181 0 23 21 047
1985   0 0 0 4 000 239 0 0 0 0 0 5 287 0 0 10 237 0 5 19 768
1986   0 0 42 2 718 13 0 0 0 0 0 7 783 0 0 12 200 0 12 22 768
1987   0 0 0 2 024 13 0 0 0 0 0 6 893 0 0 9 733 0 81 18 744
1988   0 0 186 744 67 0 0 0 0 0 8 811 0 0 9 430 0 84 19 322
1989   0 0 67 600 31 0 0 0 0 0 8 837 0 0 8 812 0 6 18 353
1990   0 0 163 954 49 0 0 0 0 0 11 615 0 0 4 764 0 10 22 555
1991   11 2 564 314 101 119 0 0 0 0 0 27 585 0 0 2 490 132 2 33 318
1992   0 0 16 13 111 13 0 0 0 0 7 668 0 31 718 23 10 8 603
1993   2 0 61 22 80 8 56 0 0 30 10 379 0 43 1 235 0 16 11 932
1994   4 0 18 296 55 3 15 5 0 4 8 428 0 36 283 1 78 9 226
1995   0 0 12 35 174 12 25 2 0 0 9 368 0 84 794 1 106 122 11 734
1996   0 0 2 81 219 123 70 0 0 0 11 623 0 79 1 576 200 374 14 347
1997   0 0 27 56 253 0 62 2 0 0 7 661 12 50 1 038 157 92 9 410
1998   0 0 57 34 67 0 23 2 0 0 8 435 31 99 2 659 259 227 11 893
1999   0 0 94 34 0 38 7 2 0 0 15 004 8 49 3 823 319 139 19 517
2000   0 0 0 15 45 0 16 1 0 0 9 083 3 37 4 568 375 154 14 297
2001   0 0 0 58 122 0 18 1 0 0 10 896 2 35 4 694 418 130 16 374
2002   0 219 0 42 7 22 4 6 0 0 7 143 5 14 5 584 178 69 13 293
2003   0 0 459 18 2 14 0 1 0 0 8 215 5 19 4 384 230 99 13 446
2004   0 0 0 9 0 0 10 0 0 0 13 939 1 50 4 662 186 43 18 900
2005   0 170 0 8 32 0 0 0 0 0 13 011 0 23 4 883 660 47 18 834
2006   0 0 204 8 46 0 8 0 0 196 11 118 201 26 6 055 2 12 17 876
2007   0 0 203 8 40 198 15 0 0 0 8 230 200 50 6 484 11 19 15 458
2008   0 0 663 5 41 0 28 0 0 0 7 393 201 46 5 294 112 26 13 809
2009   0 0 422 19 16 16 15 2 0 0 8 446 204 237 3 335 202 68 12 982
2010   0 0 272 14 102 15 16 0 0 0 7 700 3 11 6 888 188 26 15 235
2011   0 0 538 80 46 4 7 0 0 234 8 348 169 21 7 053 144 40 16 684
2012   0 0 563 40 40 12 13 0 0 0 9 331 22 1 10 041 186 35 20 284
2013   0 0 783 49 168 22 106 1 0 0 10 404 30 7 10 306 12 92 21 980
2014   0 0 887 33 269 24 86 0 0 0 10 997 19 0 10 061 23 212 22 611
2015   0 0 724 33 230 16 98 0 0 0 10 874 13 1 12 953 25 114 25 081
2016   2 353 1 078 9 229 18 75 0 0 0 12 932 26 19 10 561 27 56 25 385
2017   0 523 993 21 177 26 10 0 3 72 13 741 26 13 10 713 36 83 26 437
2018   2 574 401 50 150 20 24 0 0 206 14 875 27 6 12 071 60 134 28 600
2019   0 588 350 44 105 23 10 0 0 348 14 867 122 8 12 196 87 75 28 823
2020   1 579 514 73 39 48 19 0 0 261 14 526 97 9 12 265 96 45 28 572
2021   1 382 749 88 137 14 0 0 0 125 14 008 14 0 12 396 125 177 28 216
2022* 0 253 1 055 94 85 47 27 0 75 136 13 800 0 60 11 746 163 114 27 655
2023* 1 98 1 017 82 60 14 32 0 84 75 13 919 0 97 11 317 72 63 26 931
Table 8. Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). History of commercial landings by country. All weights are in tonnes.

*Provisional figures.

Summary of the assessment

Year Recruitment (age 2) Female SSB Total Biomass Biomass ( ≥45 cm ) Catches Harvest rate
Thousands Tonnes
1980 35 895 81 586 219 238 181 791 12 655 0.070
1981 37 050 73 723 216 067 178 241 14 466 0.081
1982 72 173 75 875 211 915 172 986 16 580 0.096
1983 8 242 75 664 205 884 165 889 21 773 0.131
1984 86 207 71 523 196 057 154 148 21 047 0.137
1985 22 201 66 968 187 790 143 719 19 768 0.138
1986 13 843 62 647 181 060 135 284 22 768 0.168
1987 80 378 56 705 172 248 125 386 18 744 0.149
1988 64 201 52 835 168 599 121 332 19 322 0.159
1989 51 049 48 931 165 604 117 639 18 353 0.156
1990 83 448 46 368 165 254 115 893 22 555 0.195
1991 66 130 42 146 162 459 109 314 33 318 0.305
1992 29 620 33 151 150 007 90 883 8 603 0.095
1993 40 229 35 514 162 728 99 101 11 932 0.120
1994 52 212 37 202 172 115 108 087 9 226 0.085
1995 59 613 40 936 184 117 122 102 11 734 0.096
1996 46 329 44 273 193 299 135 438 14 347 0.106
1997 35 737 47 425 199 176 146 155 9 410 0.064
1998 39 419 53 390 209 089 158 541 11 893 0.075
1999 50 467 58 752 215 645 165 171 19 517 0.118
2000 52 797 60 320 213 986 163 561 14 297 0.087
2001 52 051 64 079 217 178 167 825 16 374 0.098
2002 55 564 66 286 218 223 169 678 13 293 0.078
2003 76 701 69 571 222 851 172 790 13 446 0.078
2004 82 649 72 330 228 419 174 390 18 900 0.108
2005 81 080 71 875 230 121 170 894 18 834 0.110
2006 70 707 71 076 233 482 168 643 17 876 0.106
2007 67 231 70 827 239 157 168 522 15 458 0.092
2008 57 954 72 109 247 942 172 319 13 809 0.080
2009 54 996 74 628 258 557 180 665 12 982 0.072
2010 46 952 77 749 269 562 193 176 15 235 0.079
2011 43 941 80 638 277 260 205 398 16 684 0.081
2012 44 675 83 774 282 165 216 095 20 284 0.094
2013 43 353 85 867 281 969 221 658 21 980 0.099
2014 39 358 87 434 278 503 223 275 22 611 0.101
2015 41 993 88 581 273 014 221 870 25 081 0.113
2016 31 983 88 260 263 672 215 643 25 385 0.118
2017 29 363 86 822 252 705 207 095 26 437 0.128
2018 34 120 83 989 239 555 196 170 28 600 0.146
2019 87 254 79 042 224 418 182 286 28 823 0.158
2020 121 739 72 934 211 093 167 595 28 572 0.170
2021 36 906 66 116 199 934 152 589 28 216 0.185
2022 19 152 58 729 190 316 137 055 27 655 0.202
2023 44 241 51 351 182 706 121 421 26 931 0.222
2024   44 188 175 847 108 473    
Table 9. Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assessment model summary.

References

Howell, D., Bogstad, B., Chetyrkin, A., Fall, J., Filin, A., Hallfredsson, E. H., et al. (2023). Report of the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) 2023. IMR-PINRO 2023-7 Available at: https://www.hi.no/hi/nettrapporter/imr-pinro-en-2023-7.

Howell et al. 2024. Report of the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG). IMR PINRO 2024-7. https://www.hi.no/hi/nettrapporter/imr-pinro-en-2024-7

ICES (2023). Benchmark workshop on Greenland halibut and redfish stocks (WKBNORTH). ICES Scientific Reports doi:10.17895/ICES.PUB.22304638.V1.

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