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Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea shrimp in 2023

Author(s): Carsten Hvingel and Fabian Zimmermann (IMR)

Report series: IMR-PINRO 2023-2 Published: 08.03.2023
Research group(s): Bentiske ressurser og prosesser Subject: Reke – Barentshavet
Approved by: Research Director(s): Geir Huse Program leader(s): Maria Fossheim

Norsk sammendrag

1 - Advice on fishing opportunities

Based on the MSY approach and an updated assessment methodology endorsed by an international panel of experts in 2022 ( ICES 2022 ), the catches in 2023 should not exceed 153 000 tonnes.

2 - Stock development over time

Fishing pressure on the stock is below FMSY and Flim and stock biomass is above MSY Btrigger and Blim.

 

Development over time in catch, fishing mortality and stock size
Figure 1 : Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Summary of the stock assessment. Top: total catches (the paler bar is preliminary estimation for 2022). Bottom: biomass and fishing mortality relative to B MSY and FMSY, respectively, with 95% confidence intervals.

 

3 - Catch scenarios

Variable Value Notes
Mean F2022/FMSY 0.30 Corresponds to the estimated catch in 2022.
Mean B2022/BMSY 1.67 B2022 is the biomass at the end of 2022, considering the estimated catch in 2022.
Catch 2022 (t) 56 792 Preliminary data All catches are assumed to be landed;in tonnes.
Table 1 : Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. The basis for the catch scenarios.
Basis Fish at FMSY FMSY mode Constant catch
Catches (kt) 188 153 100 125 150 175
Stock size (B/BMSY) 1.54 1.58 1.63 1.61 1.58 1.55
Fishing mortality (F/FMSY) 1.00 0.80 0.52 0.65 0.79 0.93
Probability of falling below Blim 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Probability of falling below Btrigger 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Probability of exceeding Fmsy 50.0% 39.1% 20.0% 29.2% 38.1% 46.2%
Probability of exceeding Flim 24.8% 16.9% 6.4% 11.0% 16.3% 21.9%
Table 2 : Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Annual catch scenarios for 2023.

4 - Basis of the advice

Advice basis MSY approach using FMSY.
Management plan No agreed precautionary management plan for northern shrimp in this area.
Table 3 : Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. The basis of the advice.

5 - Quality of assessment

This stock was benchmarked in 2022 (ICES, 2022). Revised methods for estimation of CPUE and survey index, updated stock priors and a change of the modeling framework ( SpiCT ) were accepted. Combined, this did not alter the overall trends over time or the state of the stock in respect to reference points. Compared to the pre-benchmark assessment in 2021, this year’s assessment has resulted in a downward revision of stock biomass and an upward revision of F.

The 2022 survey data from the Russian EEZ (approximately 50% of the entire survey area) was not available in time for the stock assessment. The incomplete survey data set for 2022 adds uncertainty to the assessment.

Development over time i catch, fishing mortality and stock biomass
Figure 2 : Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Current (bold dark-blue line) and historical assessment results (previous four years) .

6 - Issues relevant for the advice

The advice was derived by IMR (Institute of Marine Research) based on the assessment framework endorsed in 2022 by the benchmark workshop on Pandalus stocks (WKPRAWN) (ICES 2022). The mode of the probability distribution of FMSY is used as the basis for the advice, given the higher uncertainty on the right-hand side of its probability distribution. Catches corresponding to the fishing mortality at median FMSY would imply catches of 188 000 tonnes in 2023.

7 - Reference points

Framework Reference p oint Value Technical basis Source
MSY approach MSY Btrigger 0.5 × BMSY * Relative value. BMSY is estimated directly from the assessment model and changes when the assessment is updated. ICES (2013)
MSY approach FMSY r/2 * Relative value. FMSY is estimated directly from the assessment model and changes when the assessment is updated. ICES (2013)
Precautionary approach Blim 0.3 × BMSY Relative value (equilibrium yield at this biomass is 50% of MSY). ICES (2013)
Precautionary approach Bpa Not defined **  
Precautionary approach Flim 1.7 × FMSY Relative value (the F that drives the stock to Blim).* ICES (2013)
Precautionary approach Fpa Not defined **  
* Fishing mortality is presented in relation to F MSY , and total stock biomass is presented in relation to B MSY . r is the intrinsic biomass growth rate. These values are directly estimated from the stock assessment and change when the assessment is updated. ** Bpa and Fpa are not defined as t he assessment provides direct estimate s of the probabilities of B < Blim and of F > Flim.
Table 4 : Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Reference points, values, and their technical basis.

8 - Basis of the assessment

Assessment type Surplus production in continuous time (SPiCT)
Input data Fishery catches 1970–2022. Three survey indices: the Norwegian shrimp survey 1982–2004 [G3653], the Russian shrimp survey 1984–2005 [G4941], and the Norwegian–Russian ecosystem survey (Eco-Norw-Q3 [A5216]) since 2004; one fishery-based index (standardized CPUE from Norwegian logbooks) since 1980.
Discards and bycatch Discarding is considered to be negligible.
Other information None
Table 5 : Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Basis of the assessment and advice.

9 - History of the advice, catch, and management

Year Advice Catches corresponding to advice Agreed TAC ICES catches
2005 No increase compared to 2004 43600 - 42 618
2006 No increase in catch above recent level 40000 - 29 627
2007 Catch that will prevent exceeding Flim in the long term 50000 - 29 931
2008 Catch that will prevent exceeding Flim in the long term 50000 - 28 188
2009 Catch that will prevent exceeding Flim in the long term 50000 - 27 272
2010 Catch that will prevent exceeding Flim in the long term 50000 - 25 198
2011 Catch that will prevent exceeding FMSY in the long term 60000 - 30 226
2012 Catch that will prevent exceeding FMSY in the long term 60000 - 24 756
2013 Catch that will maintain stock at current high biomass 60000 - 19 249
2014 No new advice, same as for 2013 60000 - 20 964
2015 Move exploitation towards FMSY < 70000 - 34 022
2016 Move exploitation towards FMSY < 70000 - 30 749
2017 Move exploitation towards FMSY ≤ 70000 - 30 442
2018 MSY approach: move exploitation towards FMSY ≤ 70000 - 56 341
2019 MSY approach: move exploitation towards FMSY ≤ 70000 - 76 086
2020 MSY approach: mode of the F MSY distribution as basis ≤ 150000 - 61 877
2021 MSY approach: mode of the F MSY distribution as basis ≤ 140000 - 58 030
2022 MSY approach: mode of the F MSY distribution as basis ≤ 140000 - 56 791
2023 MSY approach: mode of the F MSY distribution as basis ≤ 1 53 000    
Table 6 : Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. ICES advice and official landings. Weights are in tonnes.

10 - History of the catch and landings

Year Norway Russia Others Total
1970 5508 0 0 5508
1971 5116 0 26 5142
1972 6772 0 0 6772
1973 6921 0 0 6921
1974 8008 0 0 8008
1975 8197 0 2 8199
1976 9752 0 0 9752
1977 14700 0 4854 19554
1978 20484 18270 189 38943
1979 25435 10474 390 36299
1980 35061 11219 0 46280
1981 32713 9886 1011 43610
1982 43451 15552 3835 62838
1983 70798 29105 4903 104806
1984 76636 43180 8246 128062
1985 82123 32104 10262 124489
1986 48569 10216 6538 65323
1987 31353 6690 5324 43367
1988 32021 12320 4348 48689
1989 47064 12252 3432 62748
1990 54182 20295 6687 81164
1991 39663 29434 6156 75253
1992 39657 20944 8021 68622
1993 32663 22397 806 55866
1994 20162 7108 1063 28333
1995 19337 3564 2319 25220
1996 25445 5747 3320 34512
1997 29079 1493 5163 35735
1998 44792 4895 6103 55790
1999 52612 10765 12293 75670
2000 55333 19596 5768 80697
2001 43031 5846 8408 57285
2002 48799 3790 8899 61488
2003 34172 2776 2277 39225
2004 35918 2410 4406 42734
2005 37253 435 4930 42618
2006 27352 4 2271 29627
2007 25558 192 4180 29930
2008 20662 417 7109 28188
2009 19784 0 7489 27273
2010 16776 0 8419 25195
2011 19928 0 10298 30226
2012 14159 5 10600 24763
2013 8846 1067 9335 19248
2014 10234 741 9989 20964
2015 16618 1151 16253 34022
2016 10898 2491 17359 30749
2017 7010 3849 19582 30442
2018 23126 12561 20654 56341
2019 23925 28081 21576 73582
2020 19116 21265 18000 58380
2021* 30281 12378 15370 58030
2022* 368 62 3790 1613 8 56791
Table 7 : Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. ICES catches (tonnes). “Others” are EU, Iceland, Faroes, Greenland, and UK.

*Preliminary

11 - Summary of the assessment

Year B/B MSY Catch (t) F /F MSY
Mean L ow High Mean Low High
1970 1.47 0.89 2.43 5508 0.03 0.01 0.12
1971 1.52 0.92 2.52 5142 0.03 0.01 0.13
1972 1.60 0.97 2.65 6772 0.04 0.01 0.15
1973 1.61 0.98 2.65 6921 0.04 0.01 0.16
1974 1.63 1.00 2.65 8008 0.04 0.01 0.17
1975 1.60 1.00 2.56 8199 0.05 0.01 0.18
1976 1.72 1.11 2.66 9752 0.06 0.02 0.24
1977 2.05 1.36 3.06 19554 0.12 0.03 0.47
1978 2.13 1.47 3.08 38943 0.16 0.04 0.62
1979 2.05 1.50 2.82 36299 0.17 0.04 0.66
1980 2.25 1.67 3.03 46280 0.17 0.04 0.68
1981 2.41 1.79 3.24 43610 0.17 0.04 0.68
1982 2.56 1.90 3.45 62838 0.27 0.07 1.06
1983 2.84 2.11 3.83 104806 0.36 0.09 1.41
1984 2.76 2.04 3.74 128062 0.42 0.10 1.64
1985 2.02 1.49 2.75 124489 0.40 0.10 1.59
1986 1.32 0.98 1.79 65323 0.32 0.08 1.29
1987 1.14 0.84 1.55 43367 0.33 0.08 1.29
1988 1.30 0.96 1.76 48689 0.36 0.09 1.40
1989 1.52 1.13 2.06 62748 0.41 0.10 1.61
1990 1.67 1.23 2.27 81164 0.41 0.10 1.64
1991 1.90 1.40 2.57 75253 0.32 0.08 1.28
1992 2.15 1.59 2.91 68622 0.26 0.07 1.04
1993 1.98 1.46 2.68 55866 0.17 0.04 0.68
1994 1.62 1.20 2.19 28333 0.13 0.03 0.51
1995 1.65 1.22 2.23 25220 0.15 0.04 0.60
1996 1.83 1.35 2.47 34512 0.16 0.04 0.65
1997 2.00 1.48 2.69 35735 0.18 0.05 0.71
1998 2.25 1.67 3.04 55790 0.25 0.06 0.99
1999 2.17 1.61 2.94 75670 0.33 0.08 1.30
2000 1.96 1.44 2.65 80697 0.29 0.07 1.17
2001 1.95 1.44 2.64 57285 0.26 0.07 1.04
2002 1.81 1.34 2.46 61488 0.23 0.06 0.93
2003 1.65 1.22 2.23 39225 0.20 0.05 0.80
2004 1.79 1.32 2.41 42734 0.21 0.05 0.84
2005 2.09 1.55 2.82 42618 0.14 0.04 0.57
2006 2.20 1.63 2.97 29627 0.11 0.03 0.44
2007 2.26 1.67 3.04 29930 0.11 0.03 0.44
2008 2.18 1.62 2.93 28188 0.11 0.03 0.43
2009 2.09 1.55 2.82 27273 0.10 0.03 0.41
2010 1.98 1.47 2.67 25195 0.12 0.03 0.47
2011 1.73 1.28 2.33 30226 0.14 0.04 0.57
2012 1.41 1.04 1.91 24763 0.13 0.03 0.52
2013 1.24 0.92 1.67 19248 0.13 0.03 0.52
2014 1.22 0.90 1.65 20964 0.18 0.05 0.73
2015 1.22 0.90 1.65 34022 0.24 0.06 0.97
2016 1.18 0.87 1.59 30749 0.21 0.05 0.82
2017 1.28 0.95 1.72 30442 0.26 0.07 1.02
2018 1.42 1.05 1.93 56341 0.42 0.11 1.66
2019 1.31 0.96 1.78 73582 0.45 0.11 1.80
2020 1.19 0.88 1.61 58380 0.41 0.10 1.62
2021 1.44 1.06 1.94 58030 0.35 0.09 1.38
2022 1.67 1.20 2.31 56792 0.30 0.07 1.23
Table 8 : Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Assessment summary. Biomass is relative to BMSY at the end of the year and fishing mortality relative to FMSY. High and low values are the 95% confidence intervals. Catches are in tonnes. Catches for 2021 and 2022 are preliminary.

12 - Sources and references

Hvingel, C. and Zimmerman, F. 2023. Stock assessment report for Northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) in the Barents Sea (ICES Subareas 1 and 2). IMR-PINRO report series 2 -2023 .

ICES. 2013. Report of the Inter-Benchmark Protocol on Pandalus in Skagerrak and the Norwegian Deep (IBPPand), 12–19 September 2013, Dartmouth, NS, Canada. ICES CM 2013/ACOM:71. 10 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5688.

ICES. 2022. Benchmark workshop on Pandalus stocks ( WKPRAWN ). Edited by C. Lordan, and J. Lövgren. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.19714204.v1